Has this number really been affected by the weather or are we seeing the end of the jobs strength?
Before you say it, I’m not going overboard on just one number but merely throwing up an observation. Even when the US had winter’s worse than on Game of Thrones, we didn’t get a negative number for the headline NFP’s. This thing has just ended its longest streak of positive numbers in the history of the report. Could the weather have affected it that much? I’ve a sneeking suspicion that we were getting a poor number anyway and this has just made it worse.
Next month will be the true test and the headline will need to show a very big bounce. Anything less than 100k next month and we might have seen the end of this trend. If this is the end, there’s nothing wrong with that as it signals that the US labour market has reached an equilibrium, and that’s likely to be further positive for wages.
Let me know your thoughts.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
- The last NFP competition of 2022 - December 1, 2022
- Will this month’s US NFP be a horror show? - October 4, 2022
- US NFP competition – Do you think there’s going to be a turn in the US jobs market? - August 31, 2022
Spot on!!!
the weather was always a good excuse for the FEDs….
i think they have reached bottom (or highs -whats suitable-)
the issue is are they going to use the weather as an excuse to hike….or not to hike (“asking” for more convincing numbers)
It might even take more than a month imo, unless reconstruction starts fast. Market perception is another thing of course. Next month’s number will be scrutinized indeed. In the meantime we can’t overlook the wage and participation rate growth, which should keep the usd underpinned on dips.
FED’S BOSTIC SAYS U.S. LABOR MARKET ROBUST, FIRMS HAVING DIFFICULTY FINDING WORKERS WITH NEEDED SKILLS…
BOSTIC SAYS FIRMS’ DIFFICULTY FINDING APPROPRIATELY SKILLED LABOR MAY BE LIMITING BUSINESS INVESTMENT
next step may be for more part-time jobs to be converted to full or near full-time
Agreed. This is where the jobs merry-go-round should start, people moving up etc.
US companies have rationalised ever since the financial crisis. Now, they need to pay higher wages and that is showing now….
There are still workers out there who took themselves out of the jobs market…higher wages and they start to re-appear and so even slightly higher NFPs combined with slight increases in wages will likely be quite bullish USD
All playing into the hands of my cable shorts nicely
good article mate, and puts a marker down for sure. the jobs growth machine does seem to be creaking, a market of those too that dont need to/dont wish to/ dont want to/dont legitimately work/have to work is perhaps what the employment barrel now is full of or left with
Agreed. I still think there’s loads left not participating to come back but they might find they’re well down the queue now while others are moving up jobs.
and throw in the gig economy of workers taking cash.online payments making a living and not declaring as such to the IRS ( so earnings on ebay/itsey/uber/grab etc etc), worry of automation of jobs, jobs going offshore to mexico or canada (steady David…) or china, then we all know the old school model of lower unemployment leads to pressure on wages and thus a rise in inflation is now very much consigned to the academic economy text books and classrooms rather than the real world
As is ever the case mate.