Has this number really been affected by the weather or are we seeing the end of the jobs strength?

Before you say it, I’m not going overboard on just one number but merely throwing up an observation. Even when the US had winter’s worse than on Game of Thrones, we didn’t get a negative number for the headline NFP’s. This thing has just ended its longest streak of positive numbers in the history of the report. Could the weather have affected it that much? I’ve a sneeking suspicion that we were getting a poor number anyway and this has just made it worse.

Next month will be the true test and the headline will need to show a very big bounce. Anything less than 100k next month and we might have seen the end of this trend. If this is the end, there’s nothing wrong with that as it signals that the US labour market has reached an equilibrium, and that’s likely to be further positive for wages.

Let me know your thoughts.

Ryan Littlestone

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