Barring GBP , there don’t seem to be many real flows involved so far today
- ECB’s Weidmann (Germany): Reiterates view that ECB needs to raise interest rates over time
- Increasing price pressure opens the perspective on monetary policy normalization
- Regling upbeat about Europe’s economy
- Better US data
- US banks results from Jp Morgan and Citi beating expectations
- Polls giving Abe a big lead in the elections
- Us tax plan humming in the background
- US-NK pretty calm (for now, and hopefully longer)
We might expect risk to get a lift and build on yesterday’s gains in EURJPY, EURCHF and USDJPY , USDCHF .
And yet , barring the GBP fall out on the Brexit snap, everything else remains pretty listless : that tells me that today the real money community is
being very quiet and the most active are the day traders and algo’s inside 0.2-0.3% ranges . We need to be patient in this case . I am small short the funders JPY and CHF
myself waiting for the next wave , i.e. breaks of EURJPY 132.90-133.50 ,USDJPY 112.10-112.60 , USDCHF 0.9710-65 , EURCHF 1.1520-65.
Maybe the speakers in Washington later today , fixings or Gotobi day tomorrow in Japan will put some fire in da house .
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Hello Koen, heard our friends at Morgan Stanley keep USDJPY longs with SL 111.90 targeting 116.00 level. Not crazy if DXY keeps trading higher. Your thoughts?
(if any) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c577711cb7e043591510c3beebceb6c275066f43e739ef527b13482ae093a01.png
Hello José, I agree with the side of the trade. For as long as the geo-political side of things remain relatively quiet and as it becomes increasingly clear Abe and his crew are steaming towards another victory in Japan’s elections, keeping the same team and monetary,(non) fiscal policies in place. If the odds for the big US tax plan increase, USDJPY should be a prime candidate for a move higher. I wouldn’t put my stop so close though as on the first sign of NK moving a missile , the 111.90 would be blown apart in seconds.I am small long now but not nearly as much as I would be, having a firm comfortable view. I would rather be building on a 111.50 dip with a stop under 110.90 if the view for 116 develops.
Hello @K@disqus_jxr53DTt7g:disqus – yes, I agree with your view on the tight stop which ‘Kim’ could pulverize in seconds. I have another SL @ 110.80 which ‘coincidence’ matches yours. Again, if DXY keep building up – sure why not 116.00…although 114.30, then 115.45 resistances are sure to show up for the party.
Indeed , there are intermediate levels enough. i was just referring to their target, which I can see where they get that from (30/12/2016 ). Looking on my pics, I see your level, 115.50 around, if that would blow, I reckon we revisit the 118/119 area rather. Bu let’s first get the conditions right. As I pointed out above, we will need help from the real money side to create the wave.Thanks for your comments José!