Abe is likely steaming ahead to his 4th Prime Minister mandate

In a few bullet points here’s what happened and what to expect for Sunday

  • There are 465 seats for grabs in the lower house, House of Representatives.233 are thus needed for a majority. As it stands LDP and Komeito have a 2/3 majority.
  • The latest polls confirm Abe and his partner New Komeito are en route for another 2/3 majority again, which would give Abe access to the Business Seat are to enjoy the 2019 Rugby World Cup and 2020 Olympics .
  • Koike has tried , with the help of the dismantled DP but very likely failed as she failed to rally the big companies and lobbies behind her cause.
  • She also has failed to get rural Japan’s support , having emphasized her involvement in Tokyo and decided not to run herself for the post of PM.
  • Her and Abe’s programs differ on the Nuclear and the next Tax hike certainly, she wants none of either. But on economic and National Security they run along the same lines, her stance at best blurred on the former and even tougher on the latter.
  • Latest news that she might not even be present for election day , as seen traveling to Paris tomorrow, is not going to help in anyway either. It doesn’t look to bright.
  • The big companies are polled to be 94% in favor of the status quo, albeit by a smaller margin than absolute majority, to avoid the Constitution revision to be a top priority.
  • A sizable uncertainty are the non-decided,about 34%  yet if the current percentage expectations are respected, won’t be tipping the scale against LDP -Komeito.
  • Voting is open on Sunday from 7am to 8 pm.
  • Some voters can have already gone early. Some 4-5% of the votes have already been casted.It has seen an increase in voters compared to last elections.
  • The biggest risk for Sunday could be a typhoon coming over Japan.Hopefully everybody will stay safe.
  • Results will be known on Monday.
  • Assuming the polls are correct, which is also my opinion from the start, we will get the same Abenomics, lose fiscal policy and a likely smalls slide to the Right on national and International
  • As a result ,in line with my latest positioning , where I added smalls to the USDJPY longs again overnight , I remain mildly bearish JPY into the elections.Adding the latest positive US budget news,the outlook for Tax reforms there and  a good Us earning season, it should be positive for risk pairs, hence add some additional downside pressure to JPY as a carry currency.
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