What is it going to take to get a big move in USD?

US budget and tax news help lift the dollar but still we’re not breaking new ground

The US budget and tax news has helped give the dollar a lift today. The problem is that people are reading big news into this but that’s not being reflected in the price moves. Yes, we’ve seen USD gain but that’s already hitting a snag. Once more, the fortunes of the dollar are tied to US yields and 10’s have hit another top (temp or not) at 2.37%.

US 10yr yields

Are we really seeing a move on the US news or are we also seeing a reversal in Japan from yesterday’s dour moves? The big decider will come shortly when the US opens as they’ll go into bat fully over the overnight news. It looks like Asia/London/Europe have pushed things as far as they can and it will be up to the US to show us the way.

As ever, we can’t talk bout the dollar screaming anywhere unless we put a real effort in to testing the big levels. I’ll be watching the early US session with great interest. If US 10’s get above 2.37%, then the dollar might do something, and maybe we get to have a go at those 114 highs.