October 2017 Bank of Canada monetary policy decision 25 October 2017

  • Prior 1.0%
  • Lowers Q3 growth forecast to 1.8% vs 2.0% prior
  • Sees Q4 GDP at 2.5%
  • Raises 2017 GDP to 3.1% vs 2.8%
  • 2018 seen at 2.1% vs 2.0%
  • 2019 1.5% vs 1.6% prior
  • Outlook subject to substantial uncertainty about geopolitical developments and NAFTA
  • Inflation has picked up in recent months. Will rise to 2.0% in H2 2018, later than forecast in July due to higher CAD
  • Monetary and financial conditions are somewhat less stimulative
  • GDP growth is expected to moderate to a more sustainable pace
  • The recovery in business investment is becoming more entrenched
  • Exports are anticipated to grow in line with foreign demand

USDCAD rockets to 1.2770

A kicker for GDP in Q3 and pushing out their inflation forecast has sent the market into a dovish frenzy.

The full report is here.


Ryan Littlestone
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