The Deputy Chair is where the USD will move the most on I reckon
Let’s assume the “rumours” are right ,Jay Powell is in 1)I noticed on the latest dove/hawk chart, he slipped from neutral to mild dove over the past months, which would mean compared to Yellen no change and explained the mild usd sales as he took the lead of the race, but equal rebound as Fed would still be on the gradual rise and US eco data are good, earnings season barring a few exceptions excellent, and if the Tax Plan comes to fruition we should see some additional pulling on the rates.. 2)And that ‘s where I reckon the biggest USD move will come from, is Taylor in or not ?My base case is , he’s in. But if D. Trump remembers himself (quite a challenge) what he said when taking office to want low rates for longer, he could surprisingly decide to leave him out, in which case we could see a real usd sell off for a while. If in turn he’s in , well … usdjpy 115, eurusd 1.15 and usdchf pops the 1.0040 imho .
OR! Imagine a surprise combo : Powell and Yellen? Is that a possibility?Plain continuity with a better economy but cautious approach not to let anything derail. Yellen did move up a notch from super dove to mild dove over the past months .In which case I’d go for a mildly positive reaction after a dove dip sell off.
Thoughts more than welcome as I may have forgotten something or “someone ” .