As we knock off the minutes to the BOE announcement, the pound is continuing to slide
It’s all well and good brashly running a price up on an expected event but then you have to keep it up there. It looks like some of those longs from 1.3060 are deciding they want to clear their decks a little and reduce some risk, and thus we’ve been offered all morning and just traded down to 1.3204.
Here’s how it’s going to go down.
We’ll get the announcment statement/minutes/report at 12.00 GMT, and then Carney takes to the stage at 12.30 GMT. You can watch him live from our home page of our Flow TV page.
Aside form the actual hike/no hike announcement, the vote count will be very important to see how tight or open the vote was. If we’re 5/4 for a hike or hold, that will mean it’s very close and that either means we’re very close to an upcoming hike (in a vote to hold) or that it’s likely that any hike is more of a one off (a vote to hike). Reuters is forecasting 6/3 which is a big swing from the prior 7/2 to hold. A number like that will help cable in the knee-jerk pop.
Looking at the levels that might be in play, this might be quite a whippy event so I’m going to be looking at 1.3340 as a first topside level to watch, followed by 1.3370/80 and then the 1.3400/30 area. Looking down, 1.3100/15, 1.3060, 1.3030 and 1.3000. A break of 1.3000 could trigger a steeper fall as longs really throw in the towel.