North Korea risks are putting a lid on USDJPY at the major break level
As Trump visits Asia over the next eleven days, the regular US exercises as Nikkei reports are rising the stress levels a notch again. NK officials have reacted pretty strongly to
the latest US bomber fly-overs. This risk and the barrier at 114.50 have helped to cap USDJPY again at 114.42 today. Compared to previous touch and goes, we keep hanging close to the levels
this time , 114.27 writing this.The weekend promises to be relatively hot for this pair. IF there would be tightened friction or even a launch , we can expect usdjpy to open Monday on gap lower. In line with previous ever diminishing impacts , I would say 113.50/65 should be the max. If in turn we have a “surprisingly” quiet weekend, I reckon we have another gap , this time through 114.50, which could send the protectors of the barrier scrambling to cover induced shorts. We can only guess the size but looking at the fact we could only reach 42 , it could be decent.
I am long from the US ISM numbers close to 114.00, I am looking to add if we get down to 113.50/65 with a stop through 113.20. I am a believer that CB divergences and lose fiscal policies will weigh on JPY. Risk assets the Japanese equity markets should continue to attract and add to JPY sales. I will equally add to longs if we get a 114.50 break for 115.50 or better