Details from the 2017 OPEC World Oil Outlook report 07 November 2017

  • Demand is set to increase by close to 2 million barrels a day (mb/d) from the first to the second half of 2017
  • While oil is expected to see a drop in its share of the energy mix over the forecast period, it is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share, at just over 27% by 2040.
  • On oil demand, the medium-term period 2016–2022 shows an anticipated increase of 6.9 mb/d, rising from 95.4 mb/d to 102.3 mb/d
  • The outlook for long-term oil demand growth is seen reaching 111.1 mb/d by 2040, although average growth slows to around 300,000 b/d between 2035 and 2040
  • In terms of crude, it is estimated that OPEC will need to supply an additional 7.7 mb/d in the period 2020-2040
  • Global oil demand could plateau in second half of 2030 if electric vehicles are adopted more rapidly
  • Hikes 2017 North American shale forecasts to 5.1mbpd vs 4.1mbpd prior
  • US shale oil output to seen rising to 7.5mbpd in 2021
  • India and China are the two largest contributors to future energy demand
  • Gas contributes most to future energy demand growth
  • Renewables are projected to record the fastest growth rate, but oil and gas are still
    expected to supply more than half of global energy needs by 2040
 The Saudi game of chicken with shale producers backfired when oil prices collapsed, leading to the OPEC deal on production freezes. The latest report shows that shale production isn’t going anywhere fast and it’s something traditional oil players are going to have to accept. All 364 pages of the report can be found here; WOO 2017

Ryan Littlestone

Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
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Ryan Littlestone

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