ECB monthly bulletin November 2017

  • Headline inflation is likely to decline towards the turn of the year
  • Risk surrounding EZ growth remain broadly balanced
  • Global growth has broadened across countries, while survey-based indicators point to sustained momentum
  • Indicators point to a recovery in global trade in the third quarter of this year
  • Economic data in the United States are temporarily being affected by the recent hurricanes
  • In foreign exchange markets, the value of the euro remained broadly unchanged in nominal effective terms over the period under review
  • Private consumption is continuing to increase and remains a key driver of the ongoing economic expansion
  • Euro area labour markets are continuing to improve, thereby underpinning household income and consumer spending
  • Following a strong second quarter, business investment should continue to grow in the third quarter of 2017
  • Overall, the latest economic indicators are, on balance, consistent with a continued robust growth pattern in the second half of 2017
  • Annual growth in the GDP deflator, which can be regarded as a broad indicator of underlying domestic price developments, picked up to stand at 1.0% in the second quarter of 2017, up from 0.7% in the previous quarter
  • The appreciation of the euro exchange rate over the summer has eased external price pressures
  • Market and survey-based measures of long-term inflation expectations have remained broadly stable
  • Wage growth has increased somewhat but remains well below historical averages

Not much here we didn’t already know but the comment on FX affecting prices stands out, as does the comment on inflation expectations. The ECB are all about the anchoring of those. Full bulletin here.

Ryan Littlestone

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