OPEC monthly report: Supply over hang has fallen considerably since start of the year

OPEC monthly report 13 November 2017

In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d
Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm
OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016
OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb, 154 mb above the latest five-year average
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17
In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years
Global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report
2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month

Oil remains elevated as we edge closer to the next OPEC meeting at the end of the month.

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