USDJPY makes the downside break
We’ve been warning that USDJPY has been looking very bearish recently and now after several attempts around 112.00, we not only properly broken 112.00 but we’ve now broken the strong looking support around 111.70/80.
That has now opened the door for a deeper push down. The 111.40 late Sep lows is one target but otherwise we could see a test of 111.00, and another former strong S&R level at 110.90/95.
This push has given bears some added impetus and thus we’ve already been down to a 111.55 low. The bears will now want to see resistance forming around 111.70/80, and if that breaks, 112.00. A close below 111.70 would keep the bearishness intact.
Where can we go from here?
The ball is in the sellers court but most likely it won’t be an easy ride down. Desk chatter is that importer bids are lurking down here and if they follow the usual MO, they’ll be layered down some. We should also keep our ears to the ground regarding hearing about barrier options down around 110.00. That’s pure conjecture on my part but it’s a prime spot for such action.
We well and truly cemented another strong top in the 114’s so it’s only natural that we test out the range lows. That could mean a push to the 108 area. That’s still a long way away and there’s plenty to get through before there. This weakness in USD is telling as we’re still in the midst of the Fed hiking, and the Donald still trying to get his tax plan through. What is does show is that the market is discounting those effects in the dollar. For me, this pair has been a rally seller for a while and there’s nothing to change that fact at the moment. I wanted a decent level to short but one didn’t come so I’m watching from the sidelines for now. I may look for a tight short on a bounce to 111.70, or else a long from the support around 111.00.
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Sorry the only one to talk but yap…. big levels have been broken today… and just before thanksdiving gringo fiesta. FOMC…. maybe a hope for the dollar and my usd long lol 😉
The thing I hate with the NY session…. or U have a bounce between 4 or 5 pm or Nothing…. not a lot of pullbacks….
Took a long here around 111.5 to see if we slowly grind higher to 111.8 into the minutes, closing there. SL ofc very close.
Seems like this 111.5/111 area is the key to whether we’ll see a move down to under 110. Let’s see the close and if over 111.7 we’ll be likely ranging into week end while the yankees are busy with their turkeys
barring whatever Donald/Kim/etc headline
tp before turkey… 😉
Hi 5m, sorry for the late reply.
It’s looking very bearish at the moment and it seems it has no interest in pushing back up. i hope the long didn’t cost you an awful lot. i agree that the low 111’s looks a better level but I wary of the trend in place now.
hey Ryan don’t worry for the replies … lost 10 odd pips on a tight stop at 111.45.
Long again at 111.1 tonight to see if we retest 111.7 but we’re going nowhere fast. Doing well with AUD and NZD longs though. Took a bit out here at 0.7631 just to reload down at 0.76 or add through a convincing break of 0.765.
More in general, it may really be that AUD and NZD did bottom the past week as we discussed, at least against USD. Anyway mkt going into full turkey mode so let’s see next week
Nice trades 5m. You’re in the zone with AUD and NZD. It’s nice when you hit a period when you seem to be fully in tune with a market. Long may it continue.