Trade idea for the Canadian data
With the yanks having their Turkey face-stuffing Christmas rehersal today, it’s left to the beaver botherers to bring us some data inspiration.
With retail sales being notoriously volatile, I’m not really interested in worrying about the finer details, all I’m looking for in this one is a big fat miss (0.9% exp vs -0.3% prior m/m).
USDCAD has been on a bearish trend these last few days and a bad number in retails could bring about a very tasty fade short. I’m purely looking for the data to take this pair out of sync with the intraday trend, and as the loonie is still very volatile on data points, we could see it hit some very juicy levels that would be well out of kilter witht he trend. 1.2710/20 is the nearest decent looking resistance but anything up towards 1.2750/65 looks good too. There was resistance there yesterday and we have a confluence of ma’s on the H1 and H4 charts (55 H4 ma 1.2746, 100 H4 1.2759, 55, 100 & 200 H1 ma’s at 1.2745/53/64). If we get a real wild one, anything close to 1.2800 will have me chomping at the bit to short.
There’s also a possible decent long play too. There’s good support around 1.2660/70 down here, so a good beat will put that to the test, and being so close, and with CAD so jumpy, it’s likely to go. Any stops under the level could accelerate the move. 1.2600 looks choice to fade that move, though we’re likely to see support stepping in at the 1.2620/30 area.
I’m going to look to set my short stall out at around 1.2740 but I’ll judge the moves that happens. I’m not inclined to take anything less than 1.2715/20. My long stall will be pitching up at 1.2625. I’m really only interested in a big volatile move.
It’s not often we get big fx moves over data points but the loonie is providing us with that volatility, and it’s been quite good of late to catch a trade. Let’s see how this one pans out. It all happens at 13.30 GMT.
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Yes I’m in with this one. This and keeping an eye on whether USDJPY breaks through 111.3 and then I’m done
EUR looks dead into wend barring herr Schultz dropping whatever bomb later on. A long on a further spike down on the DAX might be good too.
On a side note I’m studying about a WTI short into the OPEC circus next week. We’re right at 38.2% Fibo of the big move down from 100s, shale rigs growing at about 10 per week and shale productions cost going down into 30$/barrel.
I might take a small short at 1.2720 and leave room to add if it does go higher.
I’m itching to short oil too into/over OPEC. The supply/demand sums still don’t add up and the US goes from record breaking production to record breaking production week after week (EIA report). Be mindful that the tech works well in oil when it’s quiet but usually gets blown out the window when there’s big events/news.
Sod it, just taken 21’s 😀
I’m still waiting a bit to see if it extend some more into 30s.
Yeah, patience has never been my trading strong point but I’ve pretty much halved what I would have done a higher up so I can add there too.
But on the other hand when markets are so slow it is often a good idea to get in before the trade is gone 😉
Haha, now you’re getting some of my ‘fear of missing out’ 😉
That’s why I use the strategy of reducing the trade to compensate if the price action isn’t playing out. That way you can have some skin in the game and reduced risk. The downside is that your first entry might be your only entry and so your potential profit is reduced. But, we should never moan about making money as that’s hard enough to do anyway.