Trade idea for the Canadian data
With the yanks having their Turkey face-stuffing Christmas rehersal today, it’s left to the beaver botherers to bring us some data inspiration.
With retail sales being notoriously volatile, I’m not really interested in worrying about the finer details, all I’m looking for in this one is a big fat miss (0.9% exp vs -0.3% prior m/m).
USDCAD has been on a bearish trend these last few days and a bad number in retails could bring about a very tasty fade short. I’m purely looking for the data to take this pair out of sync with the intraday trend, and as the loonie is still very volatile on data points, we could see it hit some very juicy levels that would be well out of kilter witht he trend. 1.2710/20 is the nearest decent looking resistance but anything up towards 1.2750/65 looks good too. There was resistance there yesterday and we have a confluence of ma’s on the H1 and H4 charts (55 H4 ma 1.2746, 100 H4 1.2759, 55, 100 & 200 H1 ma’s at 1.2745/53/64). If we get a real wild one, anything close to 1.2800 will have me chomping at the bit to short.
There’s also a possible decent long play too. There’s good support around 1.2660/70 down here, so a good beat will put that to the test, and being so close, and with CAD so jumpy, it’s likely to go. Any stops under the level could accelerate the move. 1.2600 looks choice to fade that move, though we’re likely to see support stepping in at the 1.2620/30 area.
I’m going to look to set my short stall out at around 1.2740 but I’ll judge the moves that happens. I’m not inclined to take anything less than 1.2715/20. My long stall will be pitching up at 1.2625. I’m really only interested in a big volatile move.
It’s not often we get big fx moves over data points but the loonie is providing us with that volatility, and it’s been quite good of late to catch a trade. Let’s see how this one pans out. It all happens at 13.30 GMT.