It may be about to change
Here’s what I published in September. Over 2 months later we’re still in the range . Having traded it a few times, it’s been sometimes a bit stressful to hold on to I admit. I would have preferred doing it via options, but margin requirements prevented me from jumping in. Anyway here we are back at the lower end of the range as EU-UK seem close to the Bill deal and overnight press reports indicating the Irish Border issue may be solved soon too. Leaves us with the Citizenship question, although imo May hinted several time past months, that issue could also be solved. We’ve kind of agreed among us fellow traders for several months now, that after the peacock fights( The Noise)on both sides of the Channel, there would be an agreement reached so to move on the phase 2. Well next week 4th December( EU’s deadline) we’ll probably know. And we’ll know for EURGBP too. And best guess based on the negotiations is IF we need to break,we’ll break down. UK’s economy and rate path support the same side I would say. I will sell it but won’t trade the break until it happens for the right reason though, that is NOT MONTH END FLOWS as GBP has seen very good demand this month end and likely will see another leg into the 4PM Gmt fixing today. I stop buying the bottom end of the range for now. What IF it breaks? Well there will still be loads of noise to come on trade deals , there’s about 760 of them to keep the negotiators awake. But seen the width of the range, the breakdown could see an equal kind of move, which would lead us ultimately to 0.8380/0.8400 around, coinciding with earlier 2017 support/swing levels.
It’s a good time to get ready, the 4th Dec is very close.