Positive Brexit news late in the UK evening may see London traders lift GBP tomorrow but there’s still downside risk

Let’s start with a catch-up of the headlines before I totter off to bed. K-Man had the Tusk news earlier but I’ll add it in here for good order’s sake. Here’s how it’s all gone down in the timeline, courtesy of our friends at Livesquawk.

  • 17:24 // EU’s Tusk To Make Statement On Brexit At CET 07:50AM On Friday
  • 18:15 // EU’s Tusk To Make Only Situational Statement Tomorrow – RTE
  • 18:25 // Irish Govt Is Reviewing New Text On Brexit Border – Independent
  • 18:27 // Ireland & Britain Very Close To Brexit Border Deal, Moving Quickly, Seems A Matter Of Hours – Irish Official
  • 18:34 // UK Govt Believes Sides Were Far Apart Now Getting Closer, But Not There Yet – BBC Political Editor Twitter
  • 18:37 // UK Official: No Deal Done Yet On Irish Brexit Border
  • 18:45 // Things Definitely Moving – Doesn’t Mean A Deal Is Done, But Different Source Says Serious Proposals Are On The Table And Being Studied – BBC Political Editor Twitter
  • 19:39 // EU: Making Progress But Not Fully There Yet On Brexit
  • 19:41 // EU: UK PM May & EU’s Juncker Are Meeting Possible Early Friday
  • 20:08 // UK PM May Spoke To Varadkar & Juncker Tonight On Brexit. May’s Office: Discussions Ongoing To Advance Brexit Talks
  • 20:14 // DUP Said To See Work To Do On Breaking Brexit Impasse
  • 21:07 // UK: Said To Be Optimistic Of Irish Border Deal By Morning
  • 20:42 // EU Said To Hope For Brexit Breakthrough Very Early Friday
  • 21:36 // UK’s May Plans To Travel To Brussels Early On Friday To See Juncker, Tusk To Finalise Irish Border Deal – BBC Political Editor
  • 21:41 // UK PM May Poised For Early Morning Dash To Brussels Over Brexit – Guardian
  • 21:41 // DUP Belfast Are Said To Not Have Signed Off On Brexit Plan – BBC
  • 21:48 // No Irish Brexit Border Deal Said To Be Expected Tonight
  • 22:06 // Irish Governing Party MEP Hayes Says Understands Sides Working On New Irish Border Text That Might Be Modified Somewhat – RTRS
  • 22:19 // EU Expects UK PM May To Sign Agreement On Friday, With Irish Border Issues Ironed Out – Telegraph

When you read it altogether like that, you can really see the ups and downs that are reflected on the GBPUSD chart. We’ve gone from deals possible to no deals possible and back to deals possible. What we are certain of is that May & Co are bending over backwards to get this deal done by/during tomorrow and if a deal if confirmed properly, either sometime tonight, or early tomorrow morning, the pound could take another leg higher, if the news is out before London traders take their desks.

It’s been a barmy day for the pound today and we are no way out of the downside risk either, as everything could be denied, or could fall apart at any time. As my colleague K-Man pointed out so very well in his last post, this is not a time to be a hero, and if you get some news that your positions are on the wrong side of, don’t fight the market, take your hit and move on to the next trade. The market doesn’t give a stuff about your view or opinion on price direction, and your pride could mean you suffer more of a loss than you needed to.

More twits and turns, thrills and spills for Friday then. Long live volatility! Trade safe and have a great evening.

Ryan Littlestone

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