November 2017 US non-farm payrolls and employment report 8 December 2017
- Prior 261k
- Average hourly earnings 0.2% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%
- 2.5% vs 2.7% exp y/y. Prior 2.4%
- Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.4 exp. Prior 34.4
- Unemplyment rate 4.1% vs 4.1% exp. Prior 4.1%
- Participation rate 62.7% vs 62.7% prior
- U6 underemployment 8.0% vs 7.9% prior
- Private payrolls 221k vs 190k exp. Prior 252k
- Manufacturing payrolls 31k vs 17k exp. Prior 24k
- Government payrolls 7k vs 5k exp. Prior 9k
Wages miss.
So we’ve dumped on the worse than expected wages but as expected, there’s nothing here to sink an expected Fed hike next week. USDJPY traded down to around 113.25 but the went back to 113.55. I’d give it some time to settle down and then we’ll see what we’re going to do with all these options at the big figures.
Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
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I guess those wage data give a bit of strength to the doves that were arguing about pausing in the hiking cycle, like Evans. After December, I mean.
Anyway mkt in love with USD not a surprise it is trying new highs after bouncing from the downside. Options will be key now, USD bulls could be happy to take profit before week end.
As K-man just rightly pointed out, It’s still a rise on last month, despite the miss of expectations. I can’t see them not hiking next week as they’ve made such a song and dance about it. However, I think they’re done after that unless the data really surprises to the upside.
Yeah I do agree reg next week. After that I also agree, pundits talking of 4 hikes next year is crazy to me. Couple of things:
1. We still have to hear from Powell. Seems to stick to Janet thinking, but could be a bit more dovish (please the Donald). Even if hw sticks to the plan no way they’ll hike big next year.
2. With Yellen, Dudley, Fischer and other voting members lame ducks/out in 2018 the shift in policy could be significant. I think a dovish turn much more likely than hawkish, considering data and the preferences of that fellow in the Oval Office (independence of the Fed eh? )
My wishful thinking see another big leg down for USD in 2018, kind of ABCD move in the weekly TF, bringing EURUSD close to 1.30. At least my crystal ball says so 😉
And long may your crystal ball reign 5M. I’d love to see 1.30 in EURUSD as I’m still long from last year 😉
I think you’ve made a very valid point on the changes coming to the Fed next year and they will be closely watched. We’ve got the growing feeling here at Forexflow that the yen is going to be the big story next year. They’ll be the last major CB still balls deep in extraordinary mon pol and they’re getting themselves in a right state. K-Man’s been going on about it for a while now I think he’s spot on.
Right, I was just thinking about the Yen. I think it needs to weaken a bit more to complete some long term patterns from the technical point of view here. But when the mkt will start to price in the BoJ shift, that will be merciless.
I’ll do some long term technical analyses before year end and we might discuss a bit here when we’re close to month end … I could post charts and crystal ball forecasts 😉
btw keep up the good work Ryan, K and other guys here at FF, this site will grow bigger
Thanks 5M. We’ll take charts and any analysis you want to provide.
One of the things I want to do with this site is expand to gather in more trading views and analysis from real traders. If you ever feel like you want to write something more substantial than a disqus comment, I’d be happy to publish it on site.
Thanks for the kinds words and if, you’re finished for the week, have a great weekend.
Ok Ryan, maybe I could do something. Perhaps at year end we could have a comprehensive discussion on what to expect next year and I could weigh in with my view/charts/drivel.
have a great weekend!
Great stuff 5m , have a cracking WE ! Thanks for all your comments .
And happy to brainstorm around the 2018 JPY plan .
Thanks to you, have a great weekend. Yes let’s do something when year end approaches