Dollars to own or to shun
As the US data continue to match or outperform expectations,my personal base case is we get a non-dovish rate hike. Add yearend expectations to see USD demand,Trump trying to do its utmost to get the Tax Reform through before Dec Jones takes office in 2018,I reckon USD will remain underpinned.
Not knowing what the CPI/ FOMC outcome will be though, my trader’s instinct is looking for the opportunity to make some dough either side of the river. Keeping a close eye on “the dots” as a main clue if the message is neutral.
Besides small shorts EURJPY and GBPJPY, here are my fav trades risk and fundamentals based, NON technical:
- Bullish USD: Sell CABLE(Brexit,rally failures, inflation peaked), buy USDCAD(oil toppy,BOC back to neutral, price action), buy USDTRY(politics)
- Bearish USD: Sell USDJPY(into BOJ, rate pressure mounting),Buy AUDUSD(m&a flows,commod demand) and NZDUSD(less uncertainty),Sell USDSEK(better numbers, less dovish Riksbank)
EURUSD is a big animal to move, it’ll be my last choice of trade and pretty binary tbh.
USDCHF looks bid but I’d rather have EURCHF long on dips as SNB should continue it’s weaker CHF policy tomorrow
Happy Hunting
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Hello…… Would you mind to explain:……..”rate pressure mounting” ? Do you expect any change from BOJ ?
Hello Prutar, thank you
In today’s previous article I mentioned the economists’s view that low Japanese rates hurt the banks’ business, BOJ watchers have already been scrutinising Kuroda’s and friends wording and feeling in regards to how and when there my occurs changes in the YCC and/or amounts bought in JGB’s and ETF’s. I don’t expect anything concrete for next week’s BOJ but the market is always in anticipation of something, hence my preference for selling usdjpy in case we get a dovish FOMC/CPI outcome today .
In addition eco numbers are on a constant upwards path lately in Japan.
I hope that replies to your question .
-https://www.forexflow.live/2017/12/13/central-banks/japans-ultra-low-rates-could-hurt-banks-business/
-https://www.forexflow.live/2017/11/21/central-banks/is-it-time-to-get-nervous-boj-watchers-think-we-may-come-closer-to-a-policy-change/
Sure, it does. Thank you….