A whole lot of data and it’s the loonie that benefits the most
Here’s my quick summary of all the data;
- US GDP – meh/touch soft
- Initial jobless – meh
- Philly Fed – Mixed but leaning towards good
- CAD retails – storming
- CAD CPI – Big jumps
All that said, USD has generally seen some weakness. USDJPY has fallen to 113.40, GBPUSD & EURUSD have taken around 20 pips back from their lows.
USDCAD is where the action is again as it tumbles nearly 80 pips to 1.2721
The inflation numbers were strong virtually across the board and the jump in the core number is huge in percentage point movement terms. Added to strong retail sales (although they can be volatile), it’s got the market thinking about a hawkish BOC again.
And guess what? I’ve taken another long on this drop with a view of running it into the BOC in Jan. I might be a sucker for punishment on this one as there’s quite a wait, and we’ve the holiday period and year-end to deal with but I had a great trade doing this a week or so ago and again, I don’t see anything that changes the BOC’s hold stance here. The only thing that gives me a slight worry is the CPI numbers. Last time I had to ride my longs down some 130 plus pips before the BOC, so this time I’m going in a touch smaller in case there’s further downside again. I’m in at 1.2730 and will look to buy further drops down to 1.2600 should we go there.
- The last NFP competition of 2022 - December 1, 2022
- Will this month’s US NFP be a horror show? - October 4, 2022
- US NFP competition – Do you think there’s going to be a turn in the US jobs market? - August 31, 2022
Sigh, here we go again…. I had a fill down there earlier as well! lol
I’ll take the other side of this one Ryan .. I’m already a bit short USDCAD from 1.2818 and I’ll be selling rallies … I don’t like the continuing rejection of 1,293. Looks like there’s a pullman parked there. Also Poloz sounding more enigmatic lately and perhaps less dovish than supposed.
Looking to test 1.262 and 100 day SMA and see what happens there.
I’ll see you on the battleground 5m 😉
Commod currencies are looking fairly well bid at the moment. If I got at or near 1.28 before COB tomorrow, I’d probably take it all (or maybe half), rather than hold anything over the holidays.
I might have a small short dabble at 0.77 in AUDUSD if we have a look.
Yes I was looking at AUDUSD too for a short … but don’t know whether 0.77 or 0.773. The latter was the big one when it came down … well, let’s see.
Could be a first short at around 0.77 to add if we go close to 0.773.
I agree. It’s a whole area really 0.7700/50/60.
I’m going to lean in against 0.77 to test the big figure resistance and I’ll watch how it does to see whether I add around 0.7715/20 (former res and the 200dma), with a stop above 30.