German regional CPI numbers drop in December 2017
The only data left today is German inflation for Dec. The regionals have been out and here’s the results (all y/y);
- Saxony 1.7% vs 2.0% prior
- Hesse 1.7% vs 2.0% prior
- Bavaria 1.7% vs 1.8% prior
- North Rhine 1.5% vs 1.8% prior
- Baden W 1.8% unch
That’s a sizeable drop in some but it is a bit of a reversal from a strong jump we saw last month. The euro has pretty much ignored the numbers, and that’s mostly because the market was/is expecting a softer month anyway. The main German number is out at 13.00 GMT and HICP is expected in at 1.4% vs 1.8% prior, with CPI expected at 1.5% vs 1.8% prior. The HICP number looks a little too wide at a 4pp change so keep an eye out if it comes in above. I’d paint it more at 1.5%, though I’m not sure there’s many traders trading the data anyway.
Update: Here’s the headline numbers out at 13.00 GMT;
- CPI 1.7% vs 1.5% exp y/y. Prior 1.8%
- HICP 1.6% vs 1.4% exp y/y. Prior 1.8%
So as I thought above, not as weak as expected. EURUSD still can’t breach 1.20 though.