29.12.2017 Heading towards a nasty weak close for the green back
As I mentioned from the start of the week here and here , USD gets a haircut into yearend and it goes on today. Commodity currencies having been underweight together with GBP, they are the main movers.
In addition we got German CPI data beats on the monthlies this morning , yearly slightly under or matching. Lots has to do with Bond and Equity performances in the US though, sparking USD sales in currency neutral investment portfolio’s as the profits are larger in USD. I a still a bit short USDJPY and long EURUSD , planning cover them into the last fixing of the year at 4PM London time.
Looking at this morning’s moves , we may just get the final acceleration EURUSD above 1.20 and USDJPY close to 112.00. To guarantee profit in case we get an early end to the USD sales , I lowered my stop USDJPY to 11280 and upped the stop on EURUSD to 1.1958 , just below the S&R level @ 60/62.
The counter trades on GBP and NZD, I’m looking at, are still valid. Wanting to be flexible till the last minute, as we never know how far the year end flows will take us, I will be patient and go into small sizes before the 4PM bell at the respective 1.3550 and 0.7132 lvls , leaving ample room to hit a spike if seen.
Here’s the 10 am gmt currency score sheet
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I squared up the EURUSD @ 1.1995, it’s good enough. Decided not to wait for the 4PM fix as it hasn’t been bought into past 2 days either .
Bought half the USDJPY back at 112.53. The rest on the fix or on a trailer back through 112.70.
Nice profit for the last day of the year, will pay for the racks and vino ….
Squared up the rest of the USDJPY@ 112.50 . Sold some cable at 1.3515 and Kiwi @ 0.7112 as per intention. Let’s see if the fixings bring any additional opportunity