Average yearly cash earnings on 09.01.2018

  • Previous earnings came in at 0.2%
  • Overtime pay y/y 2.6% vs 0.6% exp, prior 0.2%

There’s another number that Abe and Kuroda will love . The overtime pay shooting confirms the tightness of Japan’s job market and the finally increasing pressure on wages.
It bodes well for the Spring wage talks and for inflation. We should see the Japanese bourses remain underpinned and, per theoretical/historical correlation, the market may seek to drive some positive risk JPY weakness.But I remind you that I think this correlation may get a serious hit this year on the pick up of the real economy, inflation can continue to tick higher and we continue to see wage pressure.
I already sold tiny GBPJPY in the 153.20s( I held back last week ahead of 153 in the first week of the year’s euphoria) , leaving room to add into the next 1% rise if seen. GBP is my currency of choice for now based on the risk factor of the Brexit trade negotiations , but there may be other candidates to play short against JPY now or soon . Thinking about CHF and the AUD if AUDUSD would find a top 0.7880/00

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