Details of the December 2017 ECB monetary policy meeting minutes 11 January 2018

  • “A few” council members repeated their reservations about Oct decision
  • Changes to communication “generally seen” as premature
  • Language on mon pol stance and forward guidance to be revisited early this year
  • ECB Chief Econ Praet said to see increased relative importance of forward guidance on rates as part of policy package
  • “Broad agreement” among council that current mon pol stance is appropriate
  • “Wide agreement” on no change of sequencing if economy, inflation continue to grow
  • Magnitude of expected EUR appreciation diminished somewhat from Oct to Dec
  • “Steady absorption of economic slack” grounds for increased confidence price pressures will gradually take hold
  • Continued gap between headline and underlying inflation for some time to come a matter of concern
  • Projected upward path of inflation subject to “considerable uncertainty”
  • Insufficient signs of self-sustaining upward pressure on underlying inflation
  • Some upside risk could result from US tax reform

The voices of dissension were loud in this one and the market has jumped on the possible early change in guidance. EURUSD was late getting on the headlines and then jumped to 1.1985 from 1.1945.

Full ECB minutes here.

Ryan Littlestone

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