Saving the face of Europe comes second when countries count the beans
Europe wants to protect its reputation during Brexit. As I’ve mentioned many times before, the real Brexit deals will come when countries forget about listening to the crap peddled by Juncker & Co about protecting the European project, and they start doing some sums pver what Brexit might actually cost them.
Today, Spain and the Netherlands have confirmed exactly that. They are worried about trade tarrifs with the UK and how much extra they might have to pony up for EU budgest after the UK leaves. It always comes down to euro’s a cents, and it was always going to.
Forget the bluster of punishing the UK and all the crap that’s gone with it. We’re now down to real thinking at government level and that will put Juncker’s thoughts on the scrap heap. EU countries will be doing their sums and they’ll now how much they could be affected by future bad trade terms with the UK.
Forget divisions between countries, this is likely to lead to greater unity between countries, and the division will open between EU countries and Juncker. Juncker doesn’t have his neck on the line to thousands of firms and billions of citizens. The governments of EU countries do. If the Spanish and the Dutch are the tip of this iceberg, a good Brexit deal is on the cards. Germany might still be taking the unified line in public but they too have huge interest in securing decent trade deals for the billions of trade they do with the UK.
Barnier’s stance via his bosses has been from the angle that it’s up to the UK to present the deals and details for trade deals. This news tips that balance towards EU countries making sure they have ideas in place, and that means closer cooperation with the UK. If any other countries start taking this line, the pound will rip.
So, I’ll repeat what I said many moons ago when all this Brexit stuff started, and the prospective outcomes. Money talks and bullshit walks.