BBC interview broadcasted today 21.01.2018

  •  BBC interviewed Macron on Thursday
  • Some excerpts:
  • Said UK could have a special Trade Deal which needs to be negotiated
  • “As you decided to leave, you cannot be part of the single market. But in function of the nature of the negotiation, you can have some deeper relations and some others. For instance, we have a deeper relation with Norway than the one we have with Canada.”
  • On a bespoke deal: “For sure you will have your own solution” but “this special way should be consistent with the preservation of the single market and our collective interests. And you should understand that you cannot, by definition, have the full access to the single market if you don’t tick the box. And to get full access to the single market you need contribution to the budget, and you have to accept the freedoms, and the four pillars, and you have to accept the jurisdiction. As soon as you decide not to join these preconditions it’s not a full access. So it’s something perhaps between this full access and a trade agreement.”
  • Access to the Financial services “It depends on the proposals made by the U.K., but for sure full access for financial services to the single market is not feasible given the functioning of the single market. So by definition it’s not a full access.”
  •  The passporting issue:“It depends on what you’re ready to put on the table in terms of precondition. If you respect the precondition to get access to the single market, it’s feasible. But there is not cherry-picking in the single market. Because it’s not feasible. Because otherwise that’s a dismantling of the single market.”
    “My willingness is not precisely to unplug, as you say, the British City, I think it doesn’t make sense. Because it’s part of the whole financing of our European Union. But for sure, if there is no change in terms of full access to the financial single market it doesn’t make sense for the other.”
  • Bloomberg has this opinion on the subject

It’s all up in the air I’d say, which comforts me in my idea from last September that Brexit noise will put EURGBP in a constant yoyo but as long as the major deals won’t be signed and sealed and how UK will negotiate outside EU deals on a uni- or multilateral basis (US,CHina, Russia, TPP …°  it’s going to be difficult to pick a final side on this pair outside the 0.8735-0.9050 range .
Cable and EURUSD may move in tandem for a while as the market trades USD in the meantime

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