January 2018 US PCE price index and personal income and spending data 01 March 2018

  • Prior 1.7%
  • Core PCE 1.5% vs 1.5% exp y/y. Prior 1.5%
  • Personal income 0.4% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
  • Spending (adj) 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
  • Real spending -0.1% vs 0.3% prior m/m

No real help for the Fed here. PCE and core in as expected. Income and spending isn’t much to write about. Income was better but the same as last month, spending confirmed as expected. Real spending down is the only minor worry.

Hard to say what the dollar will do here. It might be happy that prces haven’t dropped as opposed to disappointed that is hasn’t risen. The biggest drop in spending was on durables (-1.5%), and we’d already seen that in the durables report this week.

Ryan Littlestone
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