Another rollercoaster of a week
A late little round of short covering into the weekend didn’t prevent JPY to be king of the week having benefitted from all sides, totally ignoring higher interest rate differentials: better Japanese data, risk off on lower equity markets, a bit of doubt from Kuroda’s side and to put the cherry on the pie US tariff threats which puts the US a bit more in isolation causing a lower USD. NOK is a surprising second on the podium as Norges bank treated us to a lower CPI target today. EURO completes the winning trio of this week’s race showing once again its resilience. Here we have a bit of weekend risk coming up with the SPD voting for the German coalition and the Italian elections, but the market (including myself) is no pricing in any negative shocks for now.
On the other side of the spectrum we find CAD, GBP and AUD in that order. Double whammy for the Cad on Nafta and global tariffs . GBP suffered from the EU draft on Brexit and UK PM May not really sending any love letters to the EU either today. AUD is a bit an odd one out, could be related to US-China trade frictions or positioning after having seen a good week past. Probably a bit of both.
A special mention to CHF, which managed to end the week weaker with all the risk noise around the world. It’s quiet in the Alps. But looking at EURCHF which can’t get a close under 1.1500, mine and many’s “guess” is Jordan’s team at SNB are not far, preventing larger drops than what would have been normal this week looking at his other funding cousin the JPY.
The weekend is here to relax , so make the best out of it. Enjoy and see you on Sunday night for the results of the votes.