Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s first press conference following the March 2018 FOMC
Just reading through the statement and a round up of the meeting.
Q&A
- Fed is trying to take the middle ground on rate hikes
- There’s only gradual upward pressure on inflation
- We wouldn’t say we tolerated an undershoot of our inflation goal
- We are always seeking 2% inflation
- The natural rate of employment can’t be observed directly
- There’s no sense in the data that we’re in the cusp of an acceleration in inflation (a mildly dovish comment)
- Fed still sees the neutral rate as still quite low
- Carefully considering increasing the number of press briefings
- Need to make sure frequent press briefings are not seen as policy signals
- Changes in trade policy should not have an effect on the Fed’s outlook
- Forecasts could change as the economy evolves
- Fiscal stimulus has a meaningful input into regional projections
- Would be good to see productivity move up
- Don’t put a lot into forecasts 3 years away (chuck the dot plot in the bin then)
- Fed’s current policy framework is working very well
- Some asset prices are elevated relative to historical norms, equities, commercial property but not housing
- I’ve been surprised wages haven’t gone up more
- Recession probabilities aren’t that high
All over.
If anyone has a reason for the dollar to rise now, let me know.
USDJPY 106.05. GBPUSD 1.4140. EURUSD 1.2340
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