Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s first press conference following the March 2018 FOMC

Just reading through the statement and a round up of the meeting.


  • Fed is trying to take the middle ground on rate hikes
  • There’s only gradual upward pressure on inflation
  • We wouldn’t say we tolerated an undershoot of our inflation goal
  • We are always seeking 2% inflation
  • The natural rate of employment can’t be observed directly
  • There’s no sense in the data that we’re in the cusp of an acceleration in inflation (a mildly dovish comment)
  • Fed still sees the neutral rate as still quite low
  • Carefully considering increasing the number of press briefings
  • Need to make sure frequent press briefings are not seen as policy signals
  • Changes in trade policy should not have an effect on the Fed’s outlook
  • Forecasts could change as the economy evolves
  • Fiscal stimulus has a meaningful input into regional projections
  • Would be good to see productivity move up
  • Don’t put a lot into forecasts 3 years away (chuck the dot plot in the bin then)
  • Fed’s current policy framework is working very well
  • Some asset prices are elevated relative to historical norms, equities, commercial property but not housing
  • I’ve been surprised wages haven’t gone up more
  • Recession probabilities aren’t that high

All over.

If anyone has a reason for the dollar to rise now, let me know.

USDJPY 106.05. GBPUSD 1.4140. EURUSD 1.2340

Ryan Littlestone

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