February 2018 UK industrial production, manufacturing and construction output 11 April 2018

  • Prior 1.3%
  • 2.2% vs 2.9% exp y/y. Prior 1.6%. Revised to 1.2%
  • Manufacturing -0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.1%. Revised to 0.0%
  • 2.5% vs 3.3% exp y/y. Prior 2.7%. Revised to 2.2%
  • Construction -1.6% vs 0.75 exp m/m. Prior -3.4%. Revised to -3.1%
  • -3.0% vs -2.9% exp y/y. Prior -3.9%. Revised to -2.1%

ONS notes

  • 3M/3M production fell 0.1%; whilst 3M/3M manufacturing grew 0.6%
  • Total production would need to fall by 1.7% in March for Q1 2018 to be flat
  • Fall in mining & quarrying down to another shutdown of Forties pipeline in Feb
  • Drop in refining possible reason for fall in fuel exports
  • Underlying construction output fell 0.8%, fourth drop in 3M/3M figure
  • Construction would need to grow by 8.8% for Q1 growth to be flat

Not good numbers but the Forties pipeline closure is giving this one a free pass as far as the market is concerned. IP has had a solid start to the year so this is hopefully just a minor blip.

GBPUSD has ducked back under 1.4200 to 1.4194 from around 1.4205 pre-release.

Ryan Littlestone

Ryan Littlestone

Psychedelic chartist extraordinaire. Have your shades ready.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”

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