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Collects more scalps than Crazy Horse and newly crowned Bitcoin & Dow top calling master.
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
Philosophy: "Trading rules.....it most certainly does"
Read how Horatio got into trading here
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morning all
eu rallies likely to get capped again in 1.2010-30 … 1.1980 wont surrender without a fight ..1.1930 resilient and a break would be explosive …watch cpi for a reality chek move
services is key point for me to decide if i bail out of my shorts gbp
dont get drawn by usd fading i am dx dip buyer till fed meeting in june
happy trading
Ahoy hoy Harry.
Nicely done as usual .
I will get some charts sorted and post myself later . It’s been a good week . A typical rinse and repeat for me . I’ve been viewing other pairs and crosses to get into – It really has been a ‘ stick with the Jin’s you know’ since last week ?
yes ill be waiting your post big H .. yes a good week thank god
Hi H
You’re nailing those levels. It’s great when you get in the zone and everything goes to plan. Don’t get complacent though as that’s when the market can slap you round the mush. ?
hi ryan
sorry if you took my words yesterday in the wrong way was kidding gerry davies style ….yes i am well aware that it can go easily to the old range that’s why the cautious tone today the move would be called mean reversion
Hi Harry, I did reply to that post. I was joking too, just joshing with you about always selling. Leave some for the rest of us ?
I think Jumbo was doing the same too BTW but he can answer for himself I’m sure.
i am a bit cautious on selling today and tomorrow but if we remained longer period below 1.2050 ill sell again … i love to be on the humorous side always that what make trading fun
And I thought I’s was the crazy one ?
Hi Dubs,
I’m prefering still USDCAD short and looking to sell EURGBP around 0.8860-80 (trendline and 200DMA).
I like to think we have USDCAD capped here Gabs.
I tend to think it has been more about USD strength than a propensity towards CAD selling
We can’t discount the ongoing trade deliberations, which have also kept it bid .
Hello everyone! Hope everything’s all right! Yesterday the 38.2 fibo (nov – feb) was a nice support area for gbpusd at 1.3560 and there is an interesting channel with the top at 1.3620 but I’ll wait the PMI services until taking a position. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f9a199352042df2cb3281817fda4747440b8b138d6d53ce4e99edc3249641d2.png
Hi Stephane
Hope you’re well?
Big number for the UK today, could be a maker or a breaker.
Hello Ryan! Yap! It’s expected to be much better. Up or down there are some nice key levels. I’d prefer to short a retracement but… let’s see!
shorted eurnzd. for 15pips stp…
Very good morning to you traders.
Late night fun yesterday during after the FOMC, as you saw from all the Live Blog posts flying about.
Good trades on EURUSD short last night. My trailing stop was hit at 1.1985 this morning. I possibly got a bit too tied up in the price action last night when it looked like pushing lower, and went a bit too greedy on my overnight TP of 1.1910 but that’s trading, you pick you poison and trade what you see at the time. Certainly not going to complain about it.
Still holding USDJPY longs but will cut more if we test and fail into 110.00 again.
Other than that I’m going to be paying more attention to my platforms today as I had a fcuk up yesterday. I forgot I had an old order in because I didn’t open my order pane fully. Fortunately it went my way but could easily have gone the other. Very annoyed at myself for the lack of discipline and concentration.
For today, I’m going back into watch mode, like I did most of yesterday until the FOMC presented some opportunities. UK Services is the big number for the pound today but I’m not thinking it will be a game changer, even if it is a good number.
GBPUSD has come down around 800 pips since everything looked rosy about the UK and BOE just over 2 weeks ago, and that’s a lot on just crossing off a 0.25% rate hike. But, obviously the dollar has been behind a lot of the move as well but still I’m thinking 800 pips is extreme. Then again, I thought it looked extreme at 1.37 so you can see why I don’t bother with indicators like RSI’s. It will be oversold when there’s more buyers than sellers ?
So I’m in two minds over services and whether a good number is a rally sell or if it might help cement a bottom (temp or otherwise). Maybe I’ll have a scalp if the number sends us down to test the barrier at 1.3500.
Best of luck and many pips to you all today.
Yap barrier at 1.35 and a 38.2 fibo in the area. It could be nice to see a retracement until the 23.6 fibo at 1.3748 and below we have the 100hma (sorry for the unbeliever ;)).
people were thinking the same when euro fell from 1.37 in nov 2013 to 1.2 in jan 2014. it fell 1000 pips more. if we are at top of expansion cycle in UK this can be a good price to short.
Exactly N. That’s why I’ll let the PA be my guide because what I think (in this case) is not strong enough for me to trade on, unless I see levels I’m happy to trade against.
I’m looking to add my euro short: EURJPY at 132.2, and/or 133.2, EURGBP at 0.884 and/or 0.888.
Good luck Chen
on kiwi…0.73 is a level to watch for me
Morning folks.
Quite a day yesterday.
With DXY approaching the 93 handle post-Fed,(as per my thoughts yesterday after the big event) I am watching that level closely. I am not getting too excited about another CFD. Just watching the reaction IF it takes the big fig.
I took the Cable short as per my late trade update last night 1.36201, wanted 3535. Locked into 1.3576 and awoke this morning, not at all disappointed in a nice chunk.
All square this morning. That`s a first for a while and so I am looking around. Waiting for the UK`s long awaited big event. Services PMI`s. Services dominate the UK economy, so this number could be make or break. One way or the other, a trade will undoubtedly come out of it and it has the potential to be a trade to hang with for a while.
So good luck folks with whatever you`re trading.
i think 1.3625 is difficult to cross for GBP
I`ve played that 3620 level for a few days now N. Good level there. I took a hefty chunk short from way above and TP`d a couple of pips off my set 36215. Then I`ve leaned against it 3 or 4 times nicely since.
I have a feeling that level might be history one way or the other after today and possibly won`t be revisited for quite a while.
I have a feeling that if 3625 is cleared by london fix today then we may have a short term low in GBP
Good morning all, late to the party, had some updates to be done on my main pc this morning , took a while, couldn’t do the update on my positions in time.
-I actually closed the EURUSD short at 1.1980 this morning opening an eye, being reasonably p.ssed off having missed the tp by 5 pips. See how we do on EU CPI’s keeping my bearish bias hence still open on the cross side of things.
-Short EURJPY , EURCAD,EURNZD.
USDCAD: Trade balances should gradually get growing attention again after having been rightfully ignored for years. Trump brought em right back to the forefront . We have both US and CAD on today. Don’t underestimate it amongst the rest of the numbers.
We’ve been consolidating 1.28-1.29 now on USDCAD for a bit, still mildly positive CAD but will monitor the pulse of the market if I’m right on the above.
The rest in jobbing mode
Stay safe and happy hunting
Pending long in Cable 1.3640, pending short 35850
Chancer I am
I had a long buy at 3640 too but now cancelled. Sold some eurgb at 0.8830
Mine`s off to Stephane
One add on ,
I may give EURCHF a try short on Jordan tonight. There’s a 0.1% chance he balances his stance a bit on CHF now we’ve hit 1.20 EURCHF and 1.00 in USDCHF. Not expected but worth a chip on Nr 37 on the roulette wheel.
Swiss eco is doing well, unemployment, exports etc… quite the same when eurchf was at 1.06… there are some politics starting to be scared with the Jordan’s management. And inflation is just a bs indicator which doesn’t care about health insurances… in 10 years I’m paying more than 100% and I don’t talk about rents.
Swiss watches won’t get cheaper with EURCHF at 1.00 or 1.20 right 😉
If the Eurozone continues to see worse data I can imagine the pressure there will be on the EURCHF again, but that’s not going to bother Jordan until it’ll be to late and then we’ll do a 2015 again …
These politics you’re talking about , are they the same who were sceptical when SNB got their first few yards EURCHF or is it more widespread now ?
The same people who criticized the abandonment of the floor rate. And they were right because the SNB spent less on defending the rate than it did in the last 3 years. At the beginning of 2015 we were at 400 billion, more or less stable, and now …. more than 700 billion. And exports have remained in the same proportions. Fortunately, Switzerland is not limited to watches, chocolate and others. Banks are only 10% of GDP. The Swiss economy has managed to diversify for 30 years and fortunately. Now there is a great fear about the SNB’s balance sheet. What to do with all this? The SNB made big profits last year, which should go back to the confederation and the cantons, but according to an agreement signed, I believe 2 years ago, for 3 years more, the compensation is limited in total to 3 or 4 billion. And when I say that the economy is much better, more than 20 cantons are in the black numbers, and, including the confederation, despite the little profit distributed by the SNB. So yes, there is growing concern about the entity’s balance sheet. The problem is that there is no inflation. Why? Wages increase every year, more than inflation. But as I said, health burdens are more important for every person and that’s where the problem is, between others…
Forgive my ignorance Stephane but how does the profit split work with the Confederation/Cantons? Is it like a replacement/additional budget that gets spent on public services and infrastructure?
In fact, for many years the cantons were planning a resource from the SNB in their budget. History to cover some expenses. There is no obligation to invest this money received, it is part of the annual budget. But as there was a lack on the part of the SNB, most cantons and even the Confederation stopped taking it into account in their forecasts. If there is a profit, since they are shareholders, it gives a positive result for them. But as I say, the current share is capped at a certain amount for a few years due to past losses. But that’s not what made the cantons or confederation in the black numbers. After there are municipalities, like Geneva, which have huge debts … But hey, there are receipts so the debts are paid little by little.
Thanks for the info Stephane, much appreciated.
I hope I was coherent and understantable 😉
Very much so ?
Thanks vm Stéphane for all these comments. Very useful.
I’m doubtful about Jordan’s plan if and when they’ll start to unwind the balance sheet or will he just leave that for his successor to loose his hair over it and himself not thinking about one?
Yap…. BNS is on its own way…. Instead of buying us equities, they should have done the same as Norway is doing. Investing more in the swiss tecnology.
The only positive point for Switzerland with a strong euro is the loss of attractiveness of the job market for French or German border workers. I do not speak Italian because the salary is still significantly higher. Since Schengen it must still be stressed that in the Geneva region alone, cross-border workers have gone from 20k to more than 120k. And despite everything, the job market remains at around 3% unemployment.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c93bc0a91c1ccdc2137758f62a9cfcbcf1c54f843f2e51fba404ae8a7da483c9.png longed abit…stop at 50. going to add some more, if it go to 50s
55/60 is looking pretty solid for now.
will you add in this area?:))
I’m thinking about my positions now Q. I ‘m currently running my stops at 109.30. If we get there I might let them trigger and see if I can grab a dip into 109. I’m not eager to add around here. I’m not sure about any of these moves so will stick to the edges.
USDCAD – Short bias Update
I posted here live, my first foray into a short ( yellow arrow on chart ).
I’m using the 23.6% – 38.2% to define my risk– Jan 2018 lows to March highs; This is where I’m comfortable basing my risk. I like the candle action on the H4 . It must be said, that the range has been narrow these past 10 days and candle wicks could be misleading over this period of low liquidity. Only a small loss will be incurred if we blow upwards from here .. I will look to adding to the short position on a breach of the lower level – 38.2% ( lower red line ). ……If you are playing spot the yellow arrow ?
I had one of those Si senior moments and forgot to add it to this chart – Was on the original close to the upper fib level ?
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0320314a4a4abe15504692fdf1416fd04efa8eb0c22698dec0dd696f9cce3c69.png
While you peel the yellow arrow off your finger end Dubs, I`ll say Great stuff on that trade and analysis. Try Gorilla glue mate 🙂
Has he got a sister ?
?
Hang on a minute, I`ll ask him 🙂
He says no, but he has a grandma. She`s having a hystreectomy right now. She`ll be ready in a couple of weeks. Is that any good to you?