USDCAD makes a topside break
The break in USDCAD opens the door for a look at the big 1.30 level.
What’s also up here is the 100 WMA at 1.2977, and after nicking a 1.2985 high, we can’t seem to get above the MA in subsequent moves. Through 1.30 and we’ll be looking at the 61.8 fib of the 2017 drop at 1.3130.
For the intraday picture, the high speaks for itself and will be part of protection into 1.30, while the downside will look to find support around the developing 1.2950 area, then 1.2900/10.
This burst today is what I’ve been worried about the last three times I tried shorting around 1.2900. I got shaken out of the first two only to see them turn into good trades, and then I got blown up on the third attempt. Perhaps I need to tighten up a touch on my discipline as I’m always worried when a price keeps testing a level. But then, I went in smaller and tighter just in case, so no real damage done. The force is stil with USD but a NAFTA surprise is still possible. I’ll look at the 1.30-1.29 range to play in the short-term.
Update: I’ve not got it on this daily chart for some reason but on another but pencil in trendline resistance around 1.3025 from the 2017 high though the current 2018 high.