In the latest MS FX update they say the trend is your friend
The latest Morgan Stanley FX Pulse is out and for those of you who don’t know, it’s probably one of the best Forex reports out there. This week they say that the Euro should continue to slide.
EUR selling to continue.EUR selling should continue as weaker economic data, political uncertainty in Italy, and slowing economic reform momentum render EUR shorts more attractive. The widening in the BTP-bund spread suggests tightening local financial conditions and has prompted the ECB’s Vitor Constancio to comment that the central bank is monitoring the situation. With broader European data already decelerating, the ECB may be forced to compensate with a dovish response. EURUSD remains vulnerable along with EURNOK, and we add a EURNZD short position as well
They opened an EURNZD short at the NY close last night (so, somewhere in the 1.7130/40 area I believe), looking for 1.6300 and a stop at 1.7400.
We express a tactical bullish view on NZD against the EUR. NZD appears oversold when measured using technical indicators like the RSI, and NZD looks poised to gain relative to other commodity producers from a terms-of- trade perspective. Risk reversals and positioning indicators suggest the risk/reward favours NZD buying as well. Meanwhile, the EUR leg is an attractive short in our view, given weakening economic data, slowing political reform, and the prospect of rising political risks from Italy. A risk to this trade is that European data improve, leading to a reversal in EUR weakness.
They’re also short EURUSD from a lofty 1.2103 targeting 1.1500 and with a profit locked in stop at 1.1870. They also want to grab a USDCAD long at 1.2650, looking for 1.31, stop at 1.2510.
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Hi, are these reports paid?where can we find access.
Lol.. Like these kinds of analysis/report ever worth a nickle☺️
Trades aside ( I think most of theirs are crazy in terms of profit targets), the whole report is some 38 pages and there’s a lot of very good macro analysis. Even if you ignore the trades and calls, the analysis is top notch. I wish I could print/link it on site in its entirety because it is very good.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b67fa27c063d7b5270943bd26c0f377dddb8a7c0a80d4c65fd4402acad03dfc2.png
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I know Dubs has been creaming EURNZD shorts on rallies.
Yes ))
Macro view aside:) What matters the most is pips.. BTW– KIWI IS A BUY for me@.6852 still holding &tp–undecided for now:D
Well, I can’t argue with that analysis Jimbo 😀
Nice entry you have there. I’d like to grab a long down into the strong looking 0.6800/20 area.
Don’t read BS, they never publish real positions from my 15 years experience.
You have to try and get on their mailing list.
Yesterday MS wrote they expect crashing Kiwi to 67 by year end also aud and etc.
I’m skeptical, Eur also is oversold like others against dollar and it’s in correction phase. I saw their kiwi chart and was impressed how stupid they are!
See my comment here to Jimbo Mike. Take out the trade stuff and it’s a great weekly report.
From time to time we see explosion like move in EUR, I feel such moment is looming :))
Which way? 😉
For me it could go either way. If inflation doesn’t pick up next month, Draghi & Co are in big trouble in the market’s eyes.
Bounce up some like 200 pips. May be it’s all my wet dreams??? :))
And I agree they could be in trouble.
You can’t rule it out as we’ve come quite a way without a decent retrace. The further we go the more likely and violent one might be.
indeed
ECB must change methodology of inflation calculation and they suddenly will be on top of the wave!
There’s going to be a few beavers in the staff projections room getting some hot phone calls 😉