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shorted cable at 35, at 1st stop at 65, now moved it to 40
goodmorning, Iron Rooster Master
Morning Q
You’re off to a good start
and now, moved stop to b/e+1 :))
Nice trade indeed Q.
morning all what and happy hunting day
sell eu rallies 1.1783 is a good spot but if went above 1.18 i doubt wont hold on for very long my target primarily is 1.1230 and much lower on Italy crisis
gbp sell on rallies the data is more important
uj buy on dips and my target still 112.30 and ill asses over there
dx dip buyer i still believe we are playing the range 93-95 extension 98
back to my comment break have a nice trading week see you next week
things looking attractive to me today is platinum and also gbp/aud.
One I will be watching this week .
We bounced on cue at the Feb lows in Asia , https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d3c3fbfb14d821d5c06093016cda3a45bd185463c46f420adc27e57ecb48062b.png and scalped long.
The trade I am looking for is a breakdown below the 23.6% fib around the 1.5585 area .
I really like this, ill see if i can get below 156
Are you going to short this pair below 1.5585 ?
This is the level I will be watching Faraz.
There is a danger of a bounce from the level ….So the price action over the next few days will be crucial .- I will update when / IF i enter
Thanks 🙂
USD is strengthening for sure, but if the weakness in Kiwi is also weighted by potential CN-US “trade deal”, I think it created an opportunity to buy nzd against euro and gbp, as NZ’s agricultural products don’t overlap very much with US’s in China.
Morning folks. A bit of life in the markets this Monday morning. Still long WTI`s. Stretching my patience somewhat but I`ll keep the faith. Called a pending short in Cable on Friday in the room. Filled overnight 1.34490 and just took 3415 to get me up and running. Will short it again on a rally after toasting 3400 IF this USD strength continues now that 94 in DXY is toasted.
Happy hunting foks
Morning Traders
I trust you all had a great weekend.
Markets are picking up where they left off from Friday. As mention on the live blog, EM FX is off and running again bringing more angst to central banks. Look for more fire fighting measures in the sessions/days ahead.
As the week is starting like the last one finished, I’m just really going to “Go With The Flow” as the trend remains our friend.
Watch for more Italian worries to filter through as the new government find its feet, and the markets decides what to make of it. If Italian bond yields are anything to go by, they’re not seeing sunshine and lollipops.
Good luck to you all this week.
Good morning all ,
-Still short EURUSD, started to scale back some here @ 1.1725 ahead of the 1.17 KO barrier in case there would be enough defense. This low 1.17 is also where we took off from in Dec again to go reach the highs. 1.1706 is the 38.2% of the whole rise. Enough to respect it here. If we get a break+acceleration I’ll tp the rest.
-Long USDJPY, last night short fall in pick up in im- and exports accentuates the positive USD move. Just sold a tiny part of it here @ 111.32. I will be slicing more between 111.68 fib, 112.00 bottom of the weekly cloud and 112.20/40 big resistance zone. Stop moves up to 110.92.
-Sold a tiny kiwi on the bad retail sales last night @ 0.6910, stop at b/e, target last week’s low arnd 0.6850
-Long USDCAD is gone just now at 1.2872, no follow through on Friday’s move, didn’t have more joy on that one than knowing I was in it 😉
Have a great trading week, stay safe and happy hunting
Morning Duckies.
I held aud/nzd over the weekend having moved my stop to 1 pip profit to protect. I got 1 pip profit! lol
Short Dow in my core positions. Will reassess if 25500 gets blown. If it does then I think the highs could be challenged again.
Other than that i’m flat looking for opportunites. Usd/Cad still remains range bound so I will play the edges until PA dictates otherwise.
Have a great trading week everyone.
Hi Chef.
I’ve taken a 1/2 position short EURAUD on the break of 1.56 .
Tight stops — I will look to add below 1.5585.
I’m going to use the 20 pips from todays long scalp as my stop loss
1.17 will be key to your short. If that goes then you might see a lot of value.
The worse the news on EUR from a fundamental viewpoint – the bigger and more unexpected the bounces are 😉
Morning all, I’m afraid I’m back with another question and it is to do with my stop losses. I worry that sometimes they are too big as it could be say 100 pip and i only gain 30 from the trade. An example where i have got stuck is in NZDUSD 0.6950 has a pivot level in it today and my overall bias is to short NZD, but 0.7000 looks like a clearer level to me in terms of prior action around it and the 0.236 fib being there.
In a case like this if nothing changes on the way back up is it better to wait and be patient for the 0.7000 where i can get a tighter stop (and would i be right in thinking a stop then is best past the next level i have 0.7050/65 in this case so roughly 50-60p).
Because if i sold instead at the 0.6950 i don’t think i would be wrong until a move above the stop planned for an entry at 0.7000 and that would be a very wide stop indeed. Is that a situation where the risk is to big to justify an entry at that level or do you scale down so the pips are worth less but it means you don’t have to sit the trade out and and can add the other part if/when prices move higher to the clearer area of 0.70?
Though I am guessing also it is very dependant on what the individual feels comfortable doing?
Hi Jack
Your stop loss should come from the amount you’re willing to put on a trade as well as the level you decide is best for your stop. So, If you want a 100 pips stop then that amount you will lose is what you need to determine you are comfortable with. If you aren’t comfortable with that whole potential loss then you need to adjust your trade.
As you note, one way is to wait until your most preferred level (0.7000) or if you want to short at 0.6950, scale in a smaller trade there and then another at 0.7000 with a stop where you want. That way your risk is lower, and although your reward might be lower (if you only get a half trade/profit from the 0.6950 short), you’ve still had some skin in the game and made money.
Don’t get sucked into thinking you have to try and make the most money by making the bigger risk trade. Just concentrate on the risk and your comfort levels. I’d rather make less money on a half trade than risk losing more on a bigger whole one.
So, pick the worst case scenario and then work it backwards.
Thanks again for your patience with me haha, so if i decided to go for a smaller position to begin with then price continues higher and turns at 0.70 say (in a perfect world) is it normal practice to split the stops so the first smaller position may get stopped out first and then the second larger position due to being entered higher would have a higher stop and survive the pull back, and would then counter what ever was lost on the first small position?
Or better to have the same stop for both positions but size the first position correctly so it doesn’t cost as much even though the distance price may have moved could have been a fair size. But your correct adjustment on trade size because i went for a closer level, meant you could weather the pullback enter more higher up then in the case of a winning situation take profits as you like as price continues in the direction I’d planned.
If you do it that way then you are, in effect, playing two separate trades, so you need to treat them as such. You play the first with the same view of risk as you would the second.
If I may make an observation, it seems (just from what I can gather from reading your posts) that you are perhaps scared of missing out on trying to grab the whole move or missing out of an opportunity. That’s the key emotion you need to overcome first before you even think about trading it. Strip all that emotion out. You have two levels in your plan, treat them as one trade with one plan or two trades with two plans and forget about what you might or might not miss out on. Just trade the levels as you see fit. They’ll either work or they won’t, you’ll either lose or you won’t. What you may lose is completely up to you and completely in your control. That is the most important part of the whole thing.
I think you are right as i seem to constantly just feel to be in a rush to be in and feel i should be aiming for a ‘big’ win’ rather than focusing on levels that matter and actually just trading them. Moving ahead my target is going to be to plan levels trade them inline with fundamentals and assign how much risk i am comfortable with than worrying about some crazy massive win or trying to get in because a pair is moving in a particular direction without me.
Plan on calmly trading without overthinking and playing the levels be they right or wrong but as i believe Si said on Thursday in an answer at a size that doesn’t matter therefore i can get practice without destroying myself.
Stop loss placements are often more difficult and troublesome than the entries.
Too close and you can wipe yourself out of a good trade / too wide and you are taking on extra risk in the event the trade goes wrong . It all boils down to the timeframe that you time your entry on, and your expectations. The general rule is a 1:1 ( equal stop loss to profit target)…. This is very problematic in practice. The easiest way is to place stops at the next visible support / resistance. You can incorporate moving averages if you use them ( I dont ), but they do have their uses.
Fibs / days highs’ lows support/ res. and candle structure are my preferred choices when setting stops .
Think i may have also got the time frames muddled and don’t have a clear picture on how long i think the trade is going to be in for so the stop and target are placed not really in line with the entry time frame with more likely the stop being wide and a short target based on a lower than entry time frame. I need some consistency in my approach to this i feel when it comes to this along with the management mentioned below. Then fingers crossed when i stop overthinking it all in such fine detail i may make some more progress.
It will take more than a bit of a turnaround in Kiwi`s fortunes Jack, to see 0.7000 anytime soon after disappointing NZ retail sales that have prompted some fresh selling in that pair. Persistent USD buying adds to the downside together with the pick-up in US bond yields together with a thawing of the US-China trade spat. Having said that, a pending order in at 0.7000 would give a nice risk/reward hiding a stop above there, unless of course, the upsurge (if it comes) is somehow due to a definite USD negative if that makes sense. In which case, you wouldn`t want to be standing in front of that train. The pair is under pressure and it`s struggling to avoid a turnover. imho, this is definitely a fundamental -biased trade with a tech level above at 6936 res` and below at 6886 supp`. A break below there would aim for 6870 onto 6855 which makes a stop just above the 6936 resistance look reasonable and good risk/reward aiming for the break below 6870. Sell a rally below 6936 with a stop just above is the way to go imho
Thanks , and now i can now see 0.70 is pretty far away from the market along with other levels on pairs i am watching which is probably why i always feel when they are reached things have changed too much to enter in the planned direction as price has managed to actually get back to them usually driven by a larger event to cover such a distance.
Si’s spot on. You can have the 0.7000 on your radar still for another time but just remember that you have to judge the move there on its merits at the time.
Take last week. Friday morning on the GWTF I said I was still interested in going with a 111.00 break in USDJPY but later when it looked like breaking, I didn’t like the price action so I held back. We traded a few pips over then fell nearly 50. Every move is different so you can’t just pick you number and trade them regardless. You have to judge each day as it comes.
Same with being in a trade. Every moment, every day you have to ask yourself, is this still good, or has something changed?
I think that is exactly what got me into my small losing run in April as i disconnected and chose levels and traded them whatever probably like you said earlier because I’d be thinking “but what if it wins i might miss out here”. I’ll take all the advice from today and the other days questions and try and put them into practice now becoming more flexible in my approach. Plus cheers guys for the patient help today, it is definitely a positive having some experienced advice 🙂
Our pleasure Jack. Good luck and feel free to continue asking questions.