Friday 25.05.2018 FX closing rates
I hope no one missed the flights out.
We started the week with flurries of political massage, positive vibes but things quickly turned sour with trade uncertainties,China-Russia-Nafta-EU-NK you name it.
-South -European politics added to EU weakish data with Italian and Spanish bonds/stocks getting a washing on enough mentioned politics(again).
-EM CB’s needed to open the rescue wallets apart from Turkey, who doesn’t seem to be overly worried their currency has a daily Thanksgiving stuffing.
-GBP equally gave in to mostly internal peacock fights, UK politicians doing their utmost best to screw every Brexit opening from the roots up, EU negotiators don’t miss an occasion to rub their noses in it. EURGBP finally moved only 0.5% since Sunday close, stubbornly refusing to break the 0.8730/40 pivot area on several occasions.
-EUR got the palm for the most beaten major currency in the end. TRY’s the big EM loser together with Latam ccies.
-Risk currencies are the winners although JPY was a strange one, first needing to do a fresh low vs USD (to drag me into the Siren’s arms on Tuesday) before recovering its safe haven status in an imperial way. CHF is actually the best risk(off) currency of the week, testing the Jordan boys(SNB) interventionist policy on several occasions after having hit 1.20 vs EUR and parity vs USD right at the start of the week. One has to wonder when they will judge the time come to step back in, now we’re closing the week sub 1.1550 on the cross.
-Special mention to the scandies for the followers where their (semi-)officials are the only not complaining about their currency, hence attracting a few flows this week.
-Last ccy is CAD, which resisted quite well for a good part of the week but finally gave in to Nafta uncertainties to go and break the 1.2925 barrier. Oil has taken a dive this Friday as Open-Non Open countries are hinting at a rise in production at their meeting in June to counter shortages and ME tensions.
I must have forgotten a few things but I’m sure you read all of it already on our updates on the pressing points and our frequent positioning updates, which this week again showed our traders/commentators are on top of their game(most creamed the EUR short and USD long trades) with many really good positions and (in my case for sure) trading out of wrong ones and going back in the direction of the market is feasible through swift analysis, realistic stops and reversals in place.
For my part I kept a tiny short EURUSD, tiny long USDCHF( asking for trouble) and a fraction long USDCAD over the weekend.
Rest me to wish you all a stellar weekend, rest well, do funny things, share quality time with your dear ones and keep a distant eye on politics. The globe is full of little, tall, slim, fat, anti- and pro-EU, orange and other coloured haired politicians who could easily create a gap open on Sunday night.
Thanks a bunch for all your comments who help us get better in helping you!