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morning all
thanks ryan for the options update
today’s figure is cpi on eu which is pretty much priced in as expected to jump the focus will remain on core cpi and anything less than 1 percent euro will have a reality check
stay below 1.17 and ull have a nice run lower and 1.1733-40 a decent supply zone
usd re balancing risk a bit of downside as the job done yesterday and i am buying the dip
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de6c5679f3d446a50679d0270607cf825f1fa33adad304ce1629138e19c7328a.jpg Goo Morning to all…
Eurusd update: A failure to hold losses below 1.1553 ( low of Nov 2017) on a monthly closing basis could mean a return to the 1.1960 levels (high of the same month) before another fall…see the chart below?!!
Hi Nader
This rally definitely has a different feel to the other so called bounces but It’s still got to do a lot before the trend changes.
Hi Ryan
Yes you are right… also lets see what month end bring today
i see the chart
Buying kiwi (not necessarily NZDUSD) until further notice:-p
You know it makes sense Chen… what kept you 😉
haha, I think you will soon reload AUDNZD from1.088? I also look at a more risky one: NZDJPY at 75.75, …
Any rational, why NZD is suddenly so strong ?
A mix of chart technicals ,and a bout of USD weakness . Nothing that screams at you.
We are entering a good month for NZDUSD.
The last 10 years Kiwi has risen 7 times in the month of June .
Oh…thanks…
Further to big H’s observation, tech side: NZDUSD bounced nicely from SR zone(since Oct 2015). fundi side: Orr’s recent comments not as bearish as it was before, and further, the prices of apple and milk in China have been rising and are expected to go further…
As long as it doesn’t effect my Tibetan yogurt supplies. I got a real taste for that in my 5 month stay. The middle kingdom always over sweeten things ?
Yea, also good for your gut after having lot of hot pipe giving where you are living:-)
Stone the Crows !! I’ve just paid some attention to NZDUSD. Now thinking where do I get in with a small stop…hehe…loooking for entry. Thanks for the heads up Horatio
big H do you believe in seasonals ? or it is just dollar weakness ?
Really nice proof of seasonals is EURUSD performance in May, that is historically the most down month for this pair.
yes i agree now the real test of the downtrend last may was at 1.11
Yes indeed … June is good 7/10 positive months over the last 10 year period with QE thrown into the mix
I must say I’m on the fence with regard to some seasonals.
There is good argument to be had for some energies, and selected soft commodities
And not forgetting Gold with the holiday / festival season in China and India
that is not suddenly….HD talked about it…from 1-2 weeks ago in the room.
Sorry….I am not member of the room….yet….
Thanks everyone for all off the input. I have really found the site refreshing so far. I am a day trader and currently only have one position open (short EURJPY) from 12698. I mainly trade the major pairs and their crosses. My specific focus being Cable and EURUSD. I trade the News have started using DXY as a barometer for where I think things are going next. DXY broke an upward intraday trend-line yesterday at 94.24 and is still falling. 93.23 for me is an important level, but what do I know? Watching for my next entry ….
Thanks for you kind words William.
i’m thinking to buy cable
I did as I opened an eye this morning Q
Aussie is your star in June if you believe in fairies ( seasonality )
8 out of ten positive months in June over the last ten years .
Second star on the right and straight on til morning ?
Good morning team,
As per live blog I scaled back some USD and EURJPY shorts last night when the mkt went a little crazy over possible activity(cleaning ..) at the NK nuke site. I actually temporary squared up eurjpy this morning buying eurusd against the short , just running short USDJPY and a tad EURSEK. I added a pinch long cable as I opened an eye .
EU CPI, US private consumption, Cad gdp, month end rebal which should be usd negative across most pairs and finally Trump setting tariffs in stone should make for a busy day.
So I’m playing the month short USD side for now, planning to reverse a few things as London 4PM strikes depending on the levels reached. I may fade the EUR rally and re-enter short EURJPY and buy USDCHF .
Feels like the market has already prepared itself for the EU CPI to beat and month end rebalancing in the opening hours of the day. Selling Usd and buying euros (it is the biggest signal on the month end model too) across.
Just a word of caution for the less experienced traders among us. Today could be a messy day as we have loads going on at the same time: important data, politics on both sides of the pond, month end flows and very large option expiries not far.
Retail traders like us represent 5% of the market, bear this in mind especially on days like this. There’s 95% flows out there over which we have no control. Techs are great to use 99% of the time, including today of course but on days like this do give the levels some leeway as we are not the only traders in this universe and algo’s typically overshoot prices and overreact to news/headlines on days like this as their sensitivity level will be set to low out of experience. Adapt your trading amounts and give yourself some air around the actual prices of the tech level is my advice of the day
kMan for the sound advices like these every day will always be your fan. My posting on this forum will be next to limited after the kind of disrespect some people have given me here. Good luck all
Thank you N, much appreciated.
But let’s all discuss markets in a normal cool headed way, we all have different opinions, sides, sensitivity to moves and timeframes.
If we leave personal considerations or attacks out of our comments, we’ll all get along I’m convinced. We’ll take care not to let conversations derail like on other sites. No place for this here and it saps our energy we need to concentrate on the market and help the people who try to make a living out of this.
Don’t despair, we don’t, otherwise we would have given up long time ago
I second what K says.
Nach, Conor was out of order for his response to you (and I warned him), and you were out of order with some of your replies, (which you graciously acknowledged). Dealing with people online is hard. You can’t get the real measure of people when you can’t look someone in the eye. I’m sure if we were all to meet face to face we’d all get on.
We’re trying to build a friendly environment here and some folks might just need some time to adjust to that from what they’ve been used to recently elsewhere.
Just to be clear.
The Eur/Usd ran from 1.1600 to 1.1674 and Nachiket said to Harry
“hahaha. 1.1674. harry did you add on to shorts at 1.160”
Now if that is ok when people are putting their own money on the line, well fine.
I don’t need to be clear Conor, I read it all.
No it’s not ok, and I said as much, to you both.
I’ve spent 5 years moderating sites and I know when I need to step in. People need to trust that we’ll do that when necessary.
Don’t let posts rattle you too much Nach. Ryan and KM have a good point that the impersonal/anonymous nature of internet discussions is somewhat conducive to things getting out of hand as folks would probably be more civil face to face. I play chess online and sometimes get attacked if I’m winning and ridiculed if I’m losing. It should be water off a duck’s back.
I’ve heard it’s dog eat dog, no holds barred in the online chess world Peter.
Morning all was looking for a possible 1.2890-1.29 in USDCAD short but we have now slipped lower if 1.2850 breaks and holds below as resistance may sell for a move down to 1.2820/00. EURUSD had started running up as i sat down and i was not going to chase that so I’m pretty content to wait for now at least see what the CPI’s looking like but expectations i feel are for a beat given France and Germany. If CPI is not as good my EURUSD supports on the day minor at 1.1680 overnight low into 1.1650 with 61.8% fib drawn from the 28th’s peak to Italy chaos low will see how they are apporached.
Have a good day everyone 🙂 Plus it’s raining today here so I feel less guilty about sitting inside all day haha
Looks like the pound short trade has come to an end I have exited my trade with 580 pips quite satisfied with that
Wicked stuff FXJ. Chuffed for you.
Thanks Ryan – I see both pound and euro at critical levels testing the highs of the week if they both can hold above there respective levels then both downtrends are broken – still could bounce back lower off the resistance of the high of the week and continue lower – should be an interesting day
John, I presume you mean 1.3340 for the pound ?
yes – I think if the price can hold above that level then the downtrend is broken and we may see the price push up to 1.3400
thank you John
Great work FXJ! Nicely done. Manufacturing pmi tomorrow and services pmi (construction also but relatively minor as you know) next week should provide good clues re price action.
Very good morning all.
Finally the balance of my EURUSD short from 1.20 hit my tailing stop at 1.1655. Not a bad little run for what was meant to be just a big figure scalp. My last tp slice was at 1.1582. I thank the market fairies for their kindness on that one, and will sacrifice a bottle of beer in their honour this weekend.
That now just leaves me long EURUSD from Tuesday night’s trade at 1.1542 and I’ve got another runner, so I’ll play it the same way as the short and see where it takes me while trailing a stop. I got out of just over half the trade yesterday, when the Italian news was looking dodgy but the market is ignoring that in favour of the EZ data, and particularly the very strong jump in inflation. I can’t help think that there’s some one off factors there because you very rarely see such sizeable moves in CPI. Something to watch for next month.
USDCAD stopped bang on the second lot of support I highlighted yesterday. I himmed and hammed about a small long down there but the BOC statement was a game changer and that’s likely to keep the pair offered in rallies. More CAD data today which could bring another bout of volatility. It might be worth looking at fading any bad numbers as the market is all gung ho for a hike now.
Watch for the big expiries today on the options as the lot in EURUSD is really quite something.
Best of luck to you all today.
not fair saying the options are looking tasty before the options post is out on the live page! 😉 hehe
Hi Stefan, they’re there already just below this post.
An ocean of expiries eurusd and a bunch of other stuff not far. It could get very interesting in the hour from expiries to the fixing this afternoon with the month end rebals. Watching out for accelerations or reversals during that hour.
my mistake..see my answer to Ryan on the same post.
Thank you
Can’t have eyes everywhere Stefan;)
I got them out especially early Stefan, wakey wakey ? ?
hmm..sorry. I thought it would show in the live page…(I double checked now and on my forexflow.live main page it does not show any post between gwtf and NK reaktor news)…
But i found it under the flow options and i should have checked before commenting.. 😉 Just used to seeing it on the live page so i never look for it in the menus.
Thank you 🙂
Oh, let me check Stefan. It should be on the Live Blog.
My sincere apologies Stefan, the post didn’t go up on the LB for some reason. I’ll redirect that wakey wakey comment at myself 😉
Morning@all.
Not making yesterdays mistake again, shorting USD for the moment only in EU.
EZ CPI, CAD GDP and trade war issues, Italian politics to be kept eye on
EU…CPI better than expected… only miss is unemployment… yet eu is down.. can anyone pls explain?
Had been anticipated by market already in EU recent swing up (my guess). Expected myself also slightly more out of it.
thanks Sir … 😉
Seems there’s more to it, benchmark portfolio shows Italian bonds again under pressure (that is, they are still recovering but pulling back).
now how can we anticipate how much it will go in this case? i love it to go if it could go
below 1.1650
Good question … Check out K-Man’s (and others) posts, we have quite some issues on the table … there’s indeed a whole lot of mix … in the mix.
I was only long EU and managed to close it out timely, sidelined and checking.
Eur can be very difficult to trade where data is concerned , sometimes it chooses to completely ignore it . good or bad. The GBP on the other hand tends to swing on data very well . It could just be that the market see’s it as priced after a run up yesterday . Options should keep it in check today and tomorrow along with the month end to add to the mix .
That is a whole lot of mix…
hi hs it was pretty much priced in .. oil prices had a hand and it is not sustainable….hi all
hi all
i am dropping a euro short 1.1780 full size and scaling accordingly
Hi Arthur
Good luck sir.
thanks on your expiry update sir
So after getting slapped a couple of times this morning on the wrong side. Fortunately with tight stops, I remind myself that I shouldn’t really trade when there is nothing really happening in the market. I have a tendency to make my stops too tight and often get caught loosing out by just a few pips before a reversal. I do need some therapy. Anyway short now both Cable and EURUSD. I need the daily pivot on both pairs to be hit and surpassed before I will feel comfortable. Cable’s pivot has been touched at 13278 and needs follow through. EU at 11619 has still a way to go. Come on Italy give us some bad news.
Sorry to hear that William.
The euro has gone into a bit of directionless no-mans land. It’s wise to pick the wider edges to trade and let the trades come to you.
But, that said, you’re doing the right thing with tight stops. We can wear lots of small losses far greater than one big one.
I had a great day yesterday. Frustrated today. Its like how I play golf. Sometimes I am Rory McIlroy, sometimes I am Ronnie Corbet…
Ahh nooo . … dodgy jumpers AND shirts ?
And I am bald and you should see my dad moves on the dance floor….Not got a lot going for me, apart from the fact that I look like George Clooney ?? or at least one of the down and outs he helps hehe..
Hahaha
seeing it’s the end of the month i always go back over my trades and look at myself to see where i can improve and wondered if anyone has some tips on how to work on what i have identified.
Basically it’s still FOMO, getting out of winners far too early for no reason other than the market naturally back tracked slightly and over emphasis on finding the level and trading it regardless of context (though this has improved a lot compared to April).
Thanks in advance, and yes it’s still raining.
Just keep trying Jack. Half the battle is won because you know what you need to work on. If you improve yourself 10% each month, you’ll see the difference to your account
never surrender i guess I’ll keep fighting on, plus technically then looking back at last month where i lost to this month where i am breakeven to a smidge in the green next month I’ll basically be George Soros (jokes) but i see what you mean there’s no shortcut it just hard work on the right things
When market is detoxing, one can either get washed in the process or be patient and wait for the dust to settle and clear set ups to re emerge. As far as I know, Dollar index caught up with 10yr and broke bullish TL of the recent up move. A classical retest of the TL ended up with a big failure a while ago (Helped by the Italy news) and as long as it stays below 94.3, more downside is coming. Uncertainties from EU & Potus holly war against the world will keep JPY and CHF supported. Hence, fading yesterday’s JPY corrections was and will probably remain the right call into tomorrow with NFP on tap but likely to end into next week. US indices late resilience is noted but rallies remain capped below recent highs. However, with FED QT over today and almost off in June, big upside is expected during the Summer. Call me crazy but I still think new ATH’s are coming this year. For now watching, EU 1.1637 – 1.1725, UJ 108.02 – 109.13, UC 1.2924 – 1.3050, GU 1.3255 – 1.3353 & Gold 1292 – 1308. Good luck all
Nice analysis Bestman.
I’m flattered Ryan. Many thx
Good stuff Bestman
Thx Si. Cheers
Posted this chart coupla weeks ago. Was expecting a short term bottom at this confluence and reversed my shorts there. What I wasn’t expecting is for this support to hold with such perfection 🙂
38.2 Fib put the price @ 1.1910. You know what to do lol
https://invst.ly/7l-x7