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good day everyone
still gold rally seller as i see it the trade of the week yesterday was a profitable one ..break 1287 and no meaningful support till 1257
eu : unable to convince to the upside warning sign for the longs ..now in consolidation phase as the upside still well protected on 1.1730 -50 breaking lower till 1.11 area is a matter of time as momentum will grow day by day
watching iron prices and its implication on aud
Gold channel support is around 1272 & TL strong support around 1261. Great long entries for 1360 with a SL below 1234. EU, the 100HMA is my line in the sand now. A close below will get me short. But it’s a day trading week at best
I’m loading up on EU longs Merlin, think the bottom is in for EU !
dont be trapped ars ..sit on your hands before any long entry bigly options at 1.1720-1.1750 holding it stay below will have a run lower
Hmmm …
ha ha
Your money Ars, your decision. What is your gut telling you?
Hi Si.
Maybe I should not have used the word bottom, but temporary floor instead.
But I already changed my mind (checked out the press release of the newly appointed Italian Gov, heads on collision course versus “Brussels”).
I wasn`t questioning your “floor” Ars. Just wondering what your gut was telling you against all the advice you`ve been given. just curious that`s all.
It’s dinner time ?
Ha!
I wouldn’t call a bottom Ars until a close above 1856 imo and it would only be a short term bottom at best. The best & classical 3 wave correction would put EU as high as 1.2-1.21 area before a new down leg resumes and takes out 1.15.
iron prices, yes always. Current account deficit narrowed Q1. Big improvement in the trade balance. Net exports were a drag, as were prices (iron ore esp`)….Export vols up 2.4% with a jump in resources exports. Agriculture down a touch…services exports up. Looks for a better GDP reading imho. But the value dip. Risks there but aren`t there always? Aussie GDP`s tomorrow 01:30 GMT
I like H`s level 7610 area but we might just get a little more value.
Downside to that? Expectations are high 😉
always appreciate your words you and H .. i like H level as well
I like 7585-90 better
probably i am long usd today… i closed my longs now watching for better entry no rush for me
yes, I like 7590 ahead of GDP`s. Let`s hope we get better value anyways
If price moves to the 85 levels then it will erase the premium built in on Mondays rip higher due to data suggesting a better read on GDP. That would be an excellent level to chance a long going into tomorrow .- If it does, I will be backing up the truck .
Good morning all,
-USDJPY tried 110, capped by exporter offers. EURJPY testing the 128.60/70 several times since yesterday, also capped. Small short in both.
-Bought small AUDUSD after RBA @ 0.7628, a broken trendline support coming in around 0.7600 where I look to add a bit more with a tight stop.
-Still a bit short EURGBP, 0.8730/40-0.8810/20 levels for action. Today’s Services PMI on both sides of the Channel should give us a retest of either side hopefully.
-Tiny long cable from last night on the 1.3300 rejection, stop under 1.3280 ( and possible reverse depending on data)
-Short a pinch EURSEK again, it’s trading heavy since 10.30s capped again 10.20/22 needs to give for a return to 10.00
That bunch of PMI’s out today across the globe should give us some direction. I’m mildly USD bearish and EUR range with a bias to sell rallies through the crosses . But expected to range rather than break new ground for the moment in most.
Watch out for the usual trade, political comments.
Long Cable and Guppy, short EG – barclaycard data showed record spending in the month of May and im playing for that to translate into U.K. Services PMI beat at 9.30am. Tight stops moved up just before the release. Good luck All!
Hi Tally. I tried to answer you on the Live Blog but it looks like the comments don’t like links for some reason. For our live room, you can get a 2 week trial here https://mrtopstep.com/forex-flow/
Good Morning, again a keen watcher of Cable. I cant help myself. I believe the news on the street is that services PMI is going to be positive but I am not entirely convinced. At present the 100 and 200 SMA figures are converging at 13314 and 13318 respectively. I am expecting a move long for Cable before pmi but would be surprise if we break the daily pivot at 13336. However watching for lacklustre results and momentum to continue to the down side. But what do I know. hunting for my 50 pips ;>)
Good morning.
Bought some cable at 1.3320 no particular target atm
and out 1,3372 no need to be too greedy
Good stuff Marek
Morning folks.
Some pending orders called in the room filled. AUDUSD filled 7630, doing well enough for now off an unchanged but steady as she goes RBA statement.
Cable filled 1.33089 and near to a level we leaned on during the spill down. I expected Cable to give more lift from there by now, so it`s a tad close to the PMI`s print. I want a break-even stop there. I have another pending short set for 1.32950 if PMI`s disappoint badly.
Guppy pending long filled 146 nail. Same as Cable. Wanted to see more uplift. If PMI`s disappoint badly, I`ll play the short by ear.
Still looking at CADYEN`s and NZDYEN`s. Laters.
Good luck all and happy hunting today.
Holding one long position in AUDUSD. Sold half yesterday at 0.7653 for +70 . I will add back today if we drift down towards 0.7610 . — Still holding short positions in EURAUD from yesterdays Asia session , seeking a move towards 1.5200 . I will keep close tabs on that one and take part / full profits if it moves against me.
I have an older long NZDUSD part position still running , along with a short position in USDJPY from 23 May .that i want to add to.
No new positions opened so far today. The market is struggling to find direction . I’m happy to take my time until I spot new opportunities .
Morning Dubsy, I never realised they remade Hawaii Five O , I still like the old one being an old git. I think your’ll get your buying Aussie today possibly lower but nothing certain lol. I am waiting for the upward pressure to go for a short on cable, may see it go up all day but maybe not. Have good one Dubo its great to book em 🙂 atvb Chris
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bix_7cZj5MU
It seemed rather exotic watching Hawaii as a youngster from a house in London with grey skies and plenty of rain.
I haven’t seen the remake either ….. bet they screwed it up. they normally do ;))
Yep same here Dubsy a different faraway colourful bright world. I haven’t seen the new version only knew there was one when I youtube it. My 3 pairs all heading south nicely for the moment, bet that put the mockers on it lol, atvb Chris
Precautionary break-even stops in Cable and Guppy 1.33089 and 146 respectively. as PMI`s approach
Keep it afloat:) More leg to go.. Although not lookin’ good for $ on both usdjpy&usdchf pair, but sterling rips to move south on multiple fronts!
Hello traders.
Good to see a few of you grabbing some great trades on cable. Hat’s off to you for that.
I’m still seeing limbo mode for a lot of the majors. USDJPY banging its head on 110, GBPUSD banging its head on 1.34, EURUSD sitting in the corner looking lost.
If I’d have been at my desk on the USDJPY 110 test I might have had a scalp short. I probably won’t touch another test if it comes quickly but you can see why it’s been a good level.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd02364f94555968df9c933e6e54ca8888538361a2f4acc6b73f21aa55291ff1.jpg
If you’re still in cable, watch EURGBP around this 0.8730/40 area. It’s been an amazing pivotal area and we could be at a stretch point once again. If it breaks, that will give GBPUSD some extra oomph. If we hold, that might help cement a top in cable but then we’ll have to see what the buck does later.
Have a great day everyone.
The endless EG range! and I suck in range trading
That 30/40 area plays its hand again.
Everytime. Until further notice
Afternoon now i guess as it feels like evening after an early start for the RBA. I closed my two AUD positions this morning the one that was in profit before the release and the other entry from yesterday was at the 0.7630 support so got break even on that should of held for my target 0.7610 but that’s an issue i’m working on. Same with the GBPAUD long i took after the PMI a good trade and i had the level above 1.7550 as target all ready and planned and still got out just under half way to it. Never mind still trying to defeat myself i guess, but pushing on to improve.
Currently watching USDCAD still for 1.30 but I am cautious after the oil announcements and ISM upcoming. EURUSD or the USD in general i really can’t get a grip on and have DXY in a range for the past few sessions.
After mixed PMI’s from EUR looking for a short in EURGBP minor level into 0.8750/60 then 0.8800 above there is what i see.
On a slight positive it’s a bit cooler today so I don’t feel like I’m in a bag of Uncle Ben’s rice.
Have a good rest of day all
Hi Jack.
Are you manually getting out of those trades, leading to you doing so early?
sorry replied to my own comment above
First sign of madness that is Jack
Talking to yourself ……
Second sign is posting on Forexflow ?
some days i do generally think I’ve lost my mind sometimes haha
Yeah, what tends to happen is i have a TP in just before the level i.e. 1.7545 and I’m in and i’m think oh this is going well, but the trade killer, doubt creeps in to whether i am right in the levels and in both cases if id of just left them and walked away i’d have taken a lot more than i did as the direction was fundamentally correct today. Also cementing this bad habit is when i chase a trade or a break get in and out pretty quick for fractional win (worth nothing basically) which then makes it seem like exiting quickly was the smart and right thing to do but really i shouldn’t have been in the trade to begin with.
So without the waffle there, yeah it’s me closing the trades early
Think about scaling out of trades then. If you get to the point where you’re in the money but nervous it won’t hit your TP, take a slice or even half off the table, and think about bringing your stop right down to BE or better (depending on how much profit margin you have). That way, you’ve satisfied your nerves by banking some money and can then let the trade run with less pressure. The worst that can then happen is that the trade blows up and you’ve still only got the small profit but at least you’ve given it a chance to run to your TP, or even further. Taking partial profits in moves is something I’ve been doing a lot of due to the market conditions. Just look at my EURUSD short from up at 1.20. I managed to run that down to the 1.15’s in what was only supposed to be a quick 20/50 pip scalp. Yes, I got a bit lucky with the moves but I was slicing bits off like Sweeney Todd all the way down 😉
Right ok ill give that a try. having done some numbers for the two trades above if I’d scaled out in thirds and including the small panicky gains from last week that would have still covered the losses from this week.
though at the moment the quick exits are not enough as i take little grabs and then basically end up hurling most of it back at once.
I think that may work better for me I’ll give it a go thanks for the ongoing advice as ever it’s very very helpful *thumbs up*
$ selling in Asia, consolidation in EU, Ramping in NA…since last week! I say this ends tomorrow tops
Oil still dragged lower as expected, mostly gonna test 61-2 on a break below 64.1. CAD following across the board
eu support at 1.1650 seems to be holding well… or is it purely other factors playing and eu is still a great sell?
It’s all still looking rather messy HS with no clear direction.
and here i am hoping it will test yesterday’s break again and sell it to target last week’s low… hah
The difficulty has been that you can’t entirely trust the breaks at the moment. Look at the fake out higher yesterday. It looks like 1.1600/10-1.1720/30/40 is the range we’re stuck in (with smaller ranges developing within that).
The reality is that EURUSD is a balanced market right now so although I say it’s messy, I really mean that neither buyers nor sellers have a willingness to push it either way. That can be confusing for us traders who are always looking or thinking about the price moving to the next big place.
ok what just happened…
ECB IS SAID TO SEE JUNE 14 AS LIVE MEETING TO DEBATE QE EXIT
just saw that news feed too… just a live debate and they get all excited… wow… not knowing the outcome yet… i guess staying above 1.1690 will give eu another go at yesterday’s high…
Like Ryan says, a balanced market intraday. Add to that, it`s still a long market and so half-baked news like this can have quite a lift to it. One to fade, but beware all the talk of much lower..
eu could go 1.1830 then down to perhaps 1.1470 – 101450 area?
too much happening right now to get married to numbers as wide as 1.1470 and 1.18 HS. Difficult markets with plenty to scupper even the best-laid plans. It`s all a one step at a time day trade market. Pick your intraday levels.
As I’ve just noted on the live blog, a lot of flim-flam of might be’s, possibly’s and maybe not be’s
Yehh, vague as it should be. But it’s notable that pair managed to hold nearest support after very positive news today from the US. It set a new short term trading range now. USD been sold in Asia for the past few session. Let’s see about tonight. If EU manages to hold here, I think there’s a big chance for more gains into tomorrow
EURJPY, USDJPY, CADJPY in profit. Bought AUDUSD @ 75.95, adding at 7565 if it gets there
You beat me to the draw there on AUDUSD Bestman…I got 75981. CADYENS, I have been scratching around like an old hen on those today. Hard work
low here was 75492. Believe it or not, my buy order was at 75.92 but decided to buy manually and ended up buying the low to the pip lol
All good and the bipartisan bill to go through congress has put me long Cable, long CADYEN`s again. Sometimes pays to hang around 😉
75942*
Well done guys ;>)
anyone looking at eur.mxn short around 24? got a level warning today that i must have made a long time ago (cant even remember why/how i made a alarm here just under 24)..euro has nice news priced in today and mxn has lots of bad news priced in..if one of them (or both) turns out to be a bust that could be enough to make it go down a fair bit..i assume the carry is nice also 😉
took a small short at 23,94 with a sl at 24,02 before bedtime here…lets see if any headlines can help this trade or if it gets knocked out during the night 🙂