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Another big day – Focus will be on the ECB meeting with the silver tongued cavalier Mario Draghi taking centre stage .
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long audnzd, at 36. going to add about 20s
What will be your stop on short audnzd
morning all
my ecb preview draghi on front of critical presser so he has 3 choices and hawkish aint one of them
1-qe extension
2- some sort of qe announcement dovishly conditional
3- new instrument will be introduced to repackage debt
as for trading it is Wednesday redo spike and then sell it .. yesterday
hawkish fomc was offset by trade wars (excuse for the pa to complete) so yea expect trump to delay tarrifs and dollar buying resumption
Hope you had a fine day yesterday. I went into FOMC flat. Had a good touch on Kiwi and Aussie longs before hand as suggested here. I’m holding USDJPY short ( as per my plan ) . Price posted a nice rejection post FED and has been losing steam ever since.
I also took the opportunity to enter a EURUSD long, trying to get a jump on any hawkishness emanating from Draghi and the ECB today.- I think this is going to be more fun than the FOMC. Watching a central banker wiggle is always a joy and Draghi is the arch master. Markets are expecting an announcement as to when QE will end – so with his back to the wall, he will have to come out swinging and attempt to find a balance and tone down any perceived overt hawkishness ……… I will tip a glass to him later if he manages to pull this one off with style 😉
He always does. Guy is Italian lol
.. ?
Good morning all together,
-Short EURSEK, test today on CPI’s . Ideally we should remain below the now 10.22 resistance for a test of 10.07 and if all goes well 9.97-10.00
-Short EURJPY from last night. BOJ cut their 3-5 yr JGB buying again by 30bln JPY. JPY on a smalls upward path since then. Possible tariff announcement from Trump’s side should revive some risk off. May rather go into USDJPY over ECB.
-Added short AUDJPY on weaker AUD and Chinese data. Looking for 83.20 and 8335/50 to cap now.
-Still short the tiny USDMXN for the longer term
ECB : I’m going for the Super Mario to announce the end of tapering but then try to be as dovish as possible on the rate path. Enough excuses as data in Europe have weakened.Not sure the market will have ears to it though, let’s see.
Hey K-man. Not questioning the fundamental side of it but you seeing this ascending triangle EJ on the 4h? it looks like it wants to target 3094-31’s
HI Bestman. I did cover the EURUSD leg of the cross ahead of ECB. Will reassess after that. My Stop prior to that was closer in case of of a non-event on the US tariffs, as in through 130.45/50 but ECB commands prudence. Thanks for that though, helpful for all
Best of luck 🙂
any idea of the sudden drop in eur.sek today? (not ecb)
bw: The live page is still not working proparly and comments dissapear, any fix in sight for this?
Hi Stefan, sorry I didn’t get an alert hence such a delay. EURSEK dropped into fixing time. That’s what I’m going with. We know about some comments disappearing. Ryan’s constantly chasing on this with the developers. Refreshing the page sometimes solves the issue temporarily.
I continue shorting USD through TRY MXN and RUB
Today USDTRY 4.685 but closed 4.665 that was a 20 min. trade
Reentered USDMXN 20.726 after FED yesterday
Still open from earlier:
USDTRY 4,578 and 4,510
USDRUB 62.45
Was having second thoughts yesterday, but if USD cant rally on a hawkish FED….
USDRUB closed 62.25
USDMXN short closed 20.540
Will be happy for reload opportunity
Morning back for a day before off again tomorrow, still short longer term AUDJPY average entry now 83.13 first target to take some is the lows of last Friday area at 82.70-60, still would have preferred short AUDUSD so may be on the look out to sell in that one if a rally occurs as thinking after entry JPY wasn’t really a good counter to my bias on AUD, but if we go full on risk off again I’ve got some JPY which would help.
Also long EURNZD ahead of the ECB today after the hawkish comments leading up today i just don’t see EUR lower today if they maintain their hawkiness but it will remain in this medium term range i believe for now 1.16-1.20 in EURUSD.
Other than that i am waiting, small small loss in USDJPY at the Fed last night, though i said going into it ‘don’t trade it Jack you’ve been out for two days just watch’. But my clicky fingers got the better of me and it cost but was only small luckily.
Have a good day out there all 🙂
Good Morning. Long Yen across the board. Short USD/CAD from 1.3040 running this into 1.27 and still long Gold for weeks now waiting for the break of 1,306 to really get us going!!! Shall be interesting to see what Draghi does this afternoon.
Way to go Luke !
– short EGBP 0.8817
– short EURUSD av. 1.1791
– short CHFJPY 112.04
– the longer term short NZDCAD long AUDNZD (on which I’ve added to get to almost a full position),
reopened a long DAX on low 12800s, and the tiny bad hombre short
scalped some shorts UJPY and EJPY overnight and that’s it, waiting for Mario
Morning folks.
Took some precautionary (bottled it) profit on the Short DXY as the Buck took the high-side post-Fed and re-entered as called in the room 93.88 (prior entry 94.04), so banked some and used some profit to discount my new stop. All-in-all, I can lose profit but I can`t lose net. That`s how I like it.
Still long WTI`s 64.25 via a CFD. Had this a few days now and I need it to toast 66.85, May 1st swing low to avoid a consolidation. Needs to get up there today.
Lean apart from that. I`m in Cable called in the room. I just want to be in it. Now that Retails are printed and stumped up very well, I want to see if that print is enough to increase the market probabilities of an August hike.
Waiting on Draghi. We`ve done a lot of waiting on various events recently. Will he, won`t he? We`re guessing. Draghi is supreme at making us guess. “do whatever it takes” 😉
All the best with ECB folks. let`s hope we all make some beans on it.
I think August rate hike is very much in play. Cable should remain supported. But oil looks like flagging as long as it remains below 67.56 don’t you think?
It`s still being kind to me Bestie. toasted the 66.85 but could still go into consolidation if it doesn`t toast your level. I just have the feeling I need to be in it.
Hi all,
Yesterday, I expected two scenarios post FOMC yest both bearish USD to test the recent lows. Specifically mentioned, EUR, GBP, Gold and Silver. Post got deleted for some reason and didn’t have time to figure out why coz i had some obligations to attend to. Well, we’re testing those highs 🙂
Way I see it, the only reason FED came in bullish yest (putting aside the word “Symmetric”) was coz they were expecting, or even knew that ECB will be bullish today so I’m keeping it simple. I’m long EU, Cable (EU testing the bottom of the recent bullish channel that was broken and a break above 1840-55 will reinforce the bullish stance), gold and silver looking for recent highs to break. If those highs held, like Harry is expecting I’d still be looking to buy into mid range dip against yesterday’s lows coz USD correction is not done yet imho and DX 92.68 & 92.11 will be tested soon.
Good luck
what will really caught the market off guard is a sudden rate cut by the ECB hahaha… but we all know that is not going to happen…
More like a shock lol
Loll… you are right…