Details of the Bank of England June 2018 MPC meeting 21 June 2018
- Prior vote 7-2
- Prior bank rate 0.50%
- Prior vote 7-2 in favour of keeping rates unchanged
- Finished QE 445bn
Haldane voting for hikes is big news. Haldane is a massive dove. He has spoken more hawkishly recently but this really is a big and strange move from him. GBPUSD continues to run into 1.32 but there’s some decent selling seen up here at the moment. Watch yesterday’s highs for a clue on whether this move continues or not. This is about as hawkish a message as you could get, given that the main notes still preached caution and data watching.
Another hawkish change in the statement;
“the MPC now intends not to reduce the stock of purchased assets until Bank Rate reaches around 1.5%, compared to the previous guidance of around 2%.”
It’s mildly hawkish if you read it that they won’t be reinvesting QE longer. But you could also argue that they might not see the path of rates going as high as 2.0%, which isn’t hawkish.
August BOE hike odds jump
- RTRS hike odds now at 48.4% vs 32.4% prior to the announcement.
- BBG odds now 67.5% vs 48.7% prior