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Welcome to the new trading week here on FlorexFlow — The coffee and GBP trades are brewing.
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Friday’s unemployment rate increased because of a 2 tenth increase in
the participation rate which is probably noise but certainly does not
not signal a weaker economy….the unemployment rate remains
historically
very low and its just a matter of time before wages pick up…….
yield curve it is distorted by the flows coming backing home so it is
not a real worry actually the fed is worried about overheating than
recession … buy usd dips flows are coming target 103-108 area …
eur level to watch 1.1780-1.1790-1.1813 be aware of sudden reports that will negate the move …
shorties stay away a bit from gbp and then sell the rallies a clown show going on
horrrayyy congrats england hopefully we meet belgium in the final …lets beat the ich family
Good morning all ,
Very little inspired by the price action vs fundamentals/politics these days.Data, (Trade) wars, Brexit non- or countermoves in FX and stocks are telling me that either the medium to long term managers are not very much involved or are already partially positioned and sitting on the dock of the bay watching the the tide for now.
This could mean the summer trading is upon us. A stop and start market, one move in the day and done. We’ve seen it before, it’ll happen again. Be ready in case. Reading, chatting with the buddies about the market(world cup) is the word then and brushing up the charts to have the levels clean. Patience, lots of patience. It’s very easy to get dragged into the last leg of a move if it’s the only one around.
USD feeling defensive this morning again.
AUD has found a correlation with CNY/CNH, at least when the latter goes up, breaking through 0.7430 which should now act as a support. I’ll be looking to hoover some up if seen or via a cross.
GBP running around headless on Brexit. Surprised it’s holding up as ministers resign, will be looking to sell GBP at some stage, maybe through GBPJPY, GBPCHF or GBPAUD 0.2-0.3% higher
EM could strengthen a little. Inside ranges I may sell smalls USD rallies for the really short term.
Not going to rush into things, having very little on the books right now. Will trade data very short term unless a positive/negative trend clearly develops in anything.
Stay safe, happy hunting
keeping short UCAD, short UJPY, long AUDNZD, long DAX, small long gold.
Long GBP through CHF, USD.
Howdy fiolks.
Staying out of the GBP swirls for now until it becomes clear that either the Brexiteers make a challenge to Mrs May`s leadership or give the whole idea of a challenge up as a lost cause. The outcome of that is the time to hit the Pound, short or long. If it becomes clear that Brexiteers will struggle to garner enough support for a challenge, then the GBP can be bought almost at will ahead of the BoE and a hike that is being well and truly priced in. If Brexiteers look like they CAN put together a strong challenge, then the best trade will be on. Short to your heart`s content, because a toppled May means hard-Brexit and that outcome will be heavily investor-unfriendly. The BoE and a hike will be almost nullified.
So for me, GBP is on the back-burner until this all becaomes clearer. the best trade is to come and will be well worth waiting for. Why flail about now on a bunch of conjecture? Patience will pay the dividends.
Guppy long from last week 145.9983 paid me 147 in Asia.
CADYEN long from 83.950 almost whipsawed out on NFP`s but eventually paid 84.450. The long from 82.9194 stays for now
Short DXY futs stays on for now from 95.09, locked in to 94.55 for the timebeing. Mixed NFP`s helped some.
Missed the downside break of 73 in WTI`s, so that`s in obeyance again.
The big data event for the week looks like the US CPI`s report and budget statement for June on Thursday.
However, the biggest event with scope to really move things is the NATO meeting. The potential there is huge.
Happy hunting folks
I can only utter the guys’ words here ;
My time for taking a little step back. GBP is going to be a coin toss until we get some clarity .
Wise words from Si .
I have 2 trades going posted in the trading room for shorter term from today.
Short EURCAD short EURAUD