May 2018 UK monthly GDP and trade balance data 10 July 2018

  • Q1 2018 final 0.2% q/q
  • Monthly GDP estimate 0.3% vs 0.3% exp m/m
  • 1.5% vs 1.4% exp y/y
  • Services 0.3% vs 0.3% prior m/m. Revised to 0.4%
  • 0.4% vs 0.4% exp 3m/3m. Prior 0.2%
  • 1.7% vs 1.6% prior y/y

May 20918 trade balance data

  • Visible trade bal -12.36bn vs -12.00bn exp. Prior -14.04bn. Revised to -12.396bn
  • Non-EU trade bal -3.49bn vs -3.70bn exp. Prior -5.375bn. Revised to -4.335bn
  • EU trade bal -8.871bn vs -8.663bn prior. Revised to -8.061bn
  • Exports 2.5% vs -7.7% prior
  • Imports 0.2% vs -2.4% prior

A bit of a mess in releasing that data. BBG had some numbers, RTRS had others but then didn’t print them. First month teething problems it seems.

The important number was the 3m GDP and that’s stayed at the Q1 level of 0.2%. No improvement seen and that’s seen the pound a touch softer. Considering we’ve seent he June PMI’s improve (with Markit suggesting Q2 GDP running at 0.4%) we’ll see how this data develops next month. For now, the UK stays growing at 0.2%

ONS notes for the data;

  • GDP growth led by strong services (retail, computer programming and legal services)
  • Warm weather and royal wedding added to the positivity in services
  • UK growth was flat, 3M-to-April
  • Slow growth in manufacturing pulled down industrial production in May
  • Unplanned maintenance at Sullom Voe oil & gas unit hit mining & quarrying
  • Weak activity in March was a drag on 3M construction growth
  • Total trade deficit widened 5.0B to 8.3B 3M-to-May, on falling goods exports, rising goods imports
  • Falling exports of cars and rising imports of unspecified goods main reason for widening
Ryan Littlestone

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