Friday 27.07.2018 FX closing rates

It’s been a hot sweaty week here in London. The markets have reflected the outside temperatures: hot and hard work.
We had hot data, hot CB’ers, not so hot politicians giving us fun and headaches at times …
Finally we have some winners and losers to hand the flowers and throwing the pot to. CNH, TRY, EUR in that order suffered from trade and growth worries for the first and from respective central banks and a bit of politics for the two others. EUR’s decline is Draghi’s achievement again this week.

On the winning side we find other EM currencies to start with. MXN gained another 2% this week as investors approve Obrador and the Mexican pretty relaxed approach towards investments and Nafta.
ZAR also gained about 2% thanks to China’s support and the BRICS meeting painting a prettier picture for South African’s leader Ramaphosa.
Next up are JPY and CAD. CAD’s been gaining thanks to decent data and equally the NAFTA situation, albeit unstable, at least not going the wrong way for now.
JPY saw rates starting to pull up, BOJ intervening to keep them down but with their meeting arriving 30/31 and growing speculation they may do “something” coupled to upcoming US-Japan trade talks next month, USDJPY longs decided to take profit and sell JPY crosses, as I did too as per updates. Still a bit short GBPJPY and EURJPY actually.
USD despite a better earnings season, expectations beating data most of the week and yields keeping up, couldn’t decide whether to be a strong or average currency. Brings me back to what I wrote a while ago: It’s not always the USD who decides on the value of the pair but the other currency has certainly its say, which was the case in most pairs this week.
GBP well , next week’s BOE roughly 80% expectations for a 25 bps rate hike kept if from falling totally out of bed when EU rejected the customs agreement in the White Papers, losing a bit against the risk currencies but gaining vs EUR after all .

Rest me to thank you all for this tough but very interesting week. My colleagues’ and your comments have been great and highly appreciated.
I hope we could help you make some pips and we’ll be back on Sunday night for another exciting week with loads to happen.

Relax, do funny things and have a peaceful weekend

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