This week we looked at a problem with the fibs in GBPUSD and we have another in NZDUSD

Earlier this week I looked at the technical picture in GBPUSD and the problem with different lows for a long-term fib. Today, we’ve got an issue with NZDUSD, which is important due to the RBNZ sending the pair lower.

NZDUSD Daily chart

NZDUSD Daily chart

The problem is the flash crash low in 2015. Check your platforms because I have, and I’ve got multiple lows. Rtrs has 0.6000, I have others anywhere from 0.6070-0.6195. Depending on your low, the 61.8 fib above is either a bust or still in play. But, like GBPUSD, can we rely on it with so many different lows it’s been drawn from? If you take the Reuters low, the 31.8 fib is at 0.6595.

What do we do (again)?

Unlike cable, there’s no point in picking the next reliable low because the price would have broken it anyway as it’s higher. Overall, I’m not seeing anything juicy about the 2015 area with regards to picking possible support points, apart from the standout lows. The area around 0.6550/80 is something to look at but It’s not screaming “TRADE ME!”. If anything, I’m more inclined to hit a rally into the broken trend line and or the 0.6700 level.

Expected central bank moves (or lack of) still don’t move the market much but if the market is caught off guard by a change in sentiment, that’s what brings the bigger moves. Unless that sentiment suddenly changes again, we’ll see this pair keep a further bearish bias.

Ryan Littlestone

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