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The weekend starts here – There’s still a small matter of the last day of the trading week to see out. More thrills spills and deals ? or will it end in a whimper. Not much to get excited about data wise in the coming session, yet certainly enough going on in the global backdrop to keep us on our toes .
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Happy Friday all.
It seems this week has gone quite quickly.
There’s been quite a shift in the shorts I’m in. USDMXN has gone from looking very good to not so good. USDCNH has taken a small bd on too. EURGBP looks a strong bounce from 0.9000.
I’m still happy with all three trades with only EURGBP looking like it could go either way.
I held off taking a short in USDJPY as it looks to be in one of its “grind” phases where it just keeps on creeping in one direction and not giving an inch. I still don;t have much conviction to trade around the middle in EURUSD or GBPUSD.
I’ve got my eye on AUDUSD and the 0.7200 level but that looks like it’s out of reach now the revolving door on Aussie politics has spun again.
As always, good luck today.
Other than a bunch of small AUDCAD shorts i have nothing to start the day. Happy to hold as one US/China little to no progress on trade talks, AUD politics somewhat resolved but risks remain if Turnbull leaves government all together prompting a by-election as I’ve seen they only have a one seat majority and the new guy only won marginally on the vote. Also BOC hike odds a factor too.
I had been looking for sells in USDJPY but i feel (unless trade issues or another risk event crops up) if Powell confirms two more hikes today (i personally think he will) as in the mins and two Fed members have already brushed Trump’s comments aside the top of the range at 113 maybe a target so will look for dips I’d like to see 111.00 hold though. DXY hit quite a strong level at the 95 a couple of days ago now also and looks supported too.
No idea what EURUSD is trying to do so watching that and selling rallies short term though in GBP as long as Brexit risks are about.
Last day so have great weekend all!!
Still another week of August to go, ending with a big holiday. I can wait.
It’s definitely starting to pick up, thankfully but we’re still seeing large patches of snoozing.
the sell zones remains the same 1.1620-30 area with
expected stalling at 1.1580-1.16 ….
remain ej rally seller as long we don’t break 129.10-20 area …
powel to show cb independence
have a nice
day
The market theme is still selling EM currencies but JPY weakness confused me, so I need to sit on my hands till I get a fell for market rhythm. Firs try next week would be selling EURGBP below 0.9043– the 0.618Fib from 2017 high to 2018 low.
Good morning all,
Squared up JPY positions, after switching from USDJPY into GBPJPY, for a pretty zero sum game. I’m not sure what to think about recent JPY moves. are there M&A’s going on, are the Japanese banks swapping JPY into USD as per Mizuho’s article yesterday? Anyways CPI coming out wasn’t good enough for BOJ to increase on any flexibility they’re already at. And long JPY isn’t great for to long against most currencies as funding bites.I’ll watch developments for now.
Short USDMXN. The market doesn’t like uncertainty. Negotiatiors are prepared to take Nafta talks into next week where it was hoped for to reach some sort of a MEX-US deal by today. Canada will also need to (re)view the MEX-US deal before Mexico signs, adding another, if not uncertainty, delay. We’re still in the range but I will be very cautious if USDMEX starts to rise above 19.08/10 again.
Short GBPCHF from yesterday in the room 1.2677. Didn’t reach the 1.2590/00 test zone yet but I’ll be a little more patient.
Long NOKSEK medium term. EURNOK caps above 9.70, Norges Bank raises int rates in Sept and SEK undergoes pre-election uncertainties. That’s the plan at least. Swedish central bank is trying to work against my position this morning by saying they don’t need to slavishly follow ECB, hinting they could hike earlier.
For the rest over to Powell. Fed so far ignored Trump’s siren calls and should do so as they are “independent” but also external stress factors, which is where he could give nod to the former in words today, without changing the rate path immediately.
Stay safe, happy hunting and nice weekend to the early leavers.
short ECAD almost flat, long JPY vs USD and CHF underwater, trying to keep these 2 for now, I’ll see in the afternoon with Powell. Long DAX doing nothing for days and a longer term long AUDCHF 0.7163
Scalped and scalping here and there EURUSD and GBPUSD most of all, pips to keep the JPY longs alive (for now)
Nice one 5M