The big trading question is not ‘when’ the Fed will taper but ‘how’?
Market in a tizzy over taper There shouldn't be many people in the market now who don't think a taper is coming. It's been talked about so much, there's next to no expectation left of it happening. Yes, everyone is still throwing darts at the calendar trying to guess...
Is AUD ripe for a fall?
Fears over a jump in virus cases in Australia could put pressure on AUD. Here's how I'm trading it. https://youtu.be/0xukDDkyjb4
Fed: Same game, different rules
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) - 4X Global Research The Federal Reserve at its policy meeting on 16th June, whether inadvertently or by design, reset financial markets’ clocks. The dust has since settled somewhat, with US short-end and long-end...
The Art of Knife Catching
Here's how not to lose your fingers after this week's FOMC moves Like most people, if I'm not on big moves like this, I'm getting the itch to catch the knife. However, far too many people just think that because something's gone down a lot, it's going to up again...
The bond moves explained and what it means for FX
The simple answer is often the best answer We've been scratching our heads a bit in our trading room over the bond moves (and others) in recent days. Is it falling Central bank expectations, or fearing a top in inflation, problems over the next US stimulus package etc...
A big song and dance over US inflation
Trading preview of the US CPI data today Both CPI and Core CPI are expected to jump again. CPI is expected at 4.7% vs 4.2% pr y/y. Core 3.4% exp vs 3.0% pr y/y. Here's what a lot of the eyeballs are on. Obviously energy inflation is a big part of any inflation data...
GBP faces a test from UK elections and is a BOE taper on the cards?
It could be a choppy time for GBP this week The latter part of this week could bring some waves for GBP, as we have several events coming on Thursday. 1 - Scottish Elections Potentially the biggest event of the lot. The ruling SNP party will want to win a majority...
The changing fortunes of EURUSD and USDJPY
It was one-way traffic for these two pairs in March but April has seen that reverse. Here's a look at what may stop, or help, the trends https://youtu.be/bipXdIJ28AA
Dollar and the three bears
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) - 4X Global Research The US Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) traded in a narrow range of 1.8% between late-2020 and early March, according to our estimates. The Dollar then embarked on a 3-4 week rally,...
Are we on the cusp of some big FX breaks?
What to do when the levels start stacking up Levels are levels but some are 'more' than others, and we've been noticing that more and more pairs are developing some strong levels Here's 4 pairs that we currently have our beady eyes on in the room. The most obvious one...
EUR pairs finding some firm footing as Europe gets its Coronavirus vaccine act together
Strong bottoms look to be in place in EURUSD and EURGBP, so what's next for these pairs? https://youtu.be/kaW7gWcSbxE
The questions facing EUR
With the EU fighting a massive vaccine PR battle, what is that doing to the euro? https://youtu.be/4lj9rwsnc9c
Fed preview – Shock and awe, or Spock and snore?
The market is going dotty over the Fed The only question today (again) is whether Powell is going to stick to the script or jawbone on rates. Given his recent comments, the logical conclusion (that's the Spock reference BTW) should be that he sticks to his old lines...
Taking stock
We're seeing signs of consolidation in some pairs so here's a look at the developing ranges Yesterday I did a video for the folks over at the Investing Channel about what's currently developing in several FX pairs. https://youtu.be/gnbmmmB0S1s
Souring UK & EU relations may lead to a souring GBP
The warning signs are growing for GBP I'm getting a growing concern over the state of relations between the UK and EU. We've seen big issues building over the Brexit & Irish protocols and the coronavirus vaccines, and they're getting worse. Here an example (Click...
USDJPY – The unstoppable machine!
USDJPY just keeps going and going. It's ripping through the tech levels but we shouldn't get complacent https://youtu.be/0pj74-G4fqk
US and UK: The Comeback Kids
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) - 4X Global Research The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our...
Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) - 4X Global Research The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will on 3rd March, at around 12.30 UK time, present to the House of Commons the annual budget for the United Kingdom. The ruling Conservative...
Trading in the zone(s)
Following up on recent videos on USDJPY and GBPUSD, we've hit some of the zones previously identified. What's coming next? https://youtu.be/Tg5OpOH30ZY
The simple market explainer
Are you struggling to understand the market moves and the explanations for them? If you are, ForexFlow will give you all the explanation you need Not every trader is an economics or finance expert (not many "experts" in this game are actually experts at all but that's...
The cracks have appeared in USDJPY, and GBPUSD looks to take another leg higher
USDJPY has hit zone 1 on our hit list so what happens now? GBPUSD has knocked out the big 1.40 and needs to show if there's more in the tank https://youtu.be/l5OMh4iGV5I
The hurdles remain significant for USDJPY
USDJPY finally broke the short-term trend but there's a long road ahead yet before it challenges the longer-term trend In this video we show what levels stand in the way, and what may happen if they fail. https://youtu.be/xYxW0jYWtCU
Currency seasonality’s slow comeback?
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights...
GBP continues to thwart the bulls
GBP longs are still waiting for the next leg up but it's not coming easily GBPUSD has defined a new high resistance level, while EURGBP has developed another short-term range. https://youtu.be/52fBpOAmaLo
RIP WallStreetBets:
Is it all over before it really started? FWIW I think this whole saga has been brilliant but they're now becoming victims of their own success. WSB has become pedestalled by a clueless press and infiltrated and bastardised beyond recognition by the very people they...
Caught in a GBP trap
GBP looked like it was making a break last week but that quickly reversed. GBPUSD and EURGBP were two pairs we were trading. In this video we explain what happened and what is likely to come next https://youtu.be/OOPnFE4IAEc
Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Media and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued to proliferate in the past month. The consensus view is still...
The tech plays its part as USDJPY fails the test
Last week we looked at the possibility of USDJPY making a break. Here's what happened and what happens next https://youtu.be/Ko0ttTFeOFI
Some thoughts after Fed’s Powell and incoming President Biden
A slightly longer review of Powell and Biden to last night Sometimes sleeping on something can bring a bit of clarity the next day, and doing just that has helped with analysing the Powell and Biden stuff. Powell Nothing unexpected from him in the end. Fed will do...
Biden’s trump cards and challenges
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research Barring another dramatic twist in an already torturous two months of political upheaval, Joe Biden will find a very full in-tray when he settles into the famed Oval Office in eight days time....
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