Is the tide turning for USD
The theme coming out of the first week of the New Year was about rising inflation expectations and a reversal in USD https://youtu.be/zsfTitK5qK8
Trading themes to watch in the first few days of the New Year
Happy New Year traders As we enter the first trading days of the New Year, we need to see if price moves continue from the 2020 close, or if new moves unfold. Here's a look at a few key pairs and what might happen. https://youtu.be/TAM6HoAX1sY
Brexit – Are we really at the end of it, and what’s going on with GBP?
It seems we might be but GBP has perhaps not reacted as much as we might expect There could be a few reasons for that. We still need an official confirmation. We've been here before many times for it to all fall apart at the last moment. We also need to hear from the...
Important holiday trading information
The Christmas holidays are upon us again, so be prepared for what's to come over the next two weeks Today is likely to be the last proper trading day of the year. We've been speaking to people in the industry (banks/fin firms etc) and it seems nearly all the financial...
Far more to Renminbi than USD/CNY cross
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The prevailing market view, as depicted in a recent Reuters article, is seemingly that Chinese policy makers are happy to allow further Renminbi appreciation versus the Dollar driven by a...
Time is priceless but has a steep cost
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research While some countries, including Sweden and United states, have eschewed national lockdowns over the past nine months or so the vast majority have adopted unprecedented measures to deal with a once...
Rotation, ROTATION!
Gold and BTC divergence. It's a hot topic these days. Since the major institutionals found their way to BTC, gold has definitely lost some of its shine. Positioning, less safe haven needs, the next US stimulus round having to wait a bit to see th elight of day ,...
What’s the point of ‘Livetrading’?
There's a reason I wanted to put this trade up in public today and that wasn't to try and look Billy big bollocks The GBPUSD trade today could have just as easily gone bad. What I wanted to show was the process and trade management that we teach and encourage to a lot...
Where can GBP go on a Brexit deal (or no-deal)?
We're assessing the possible price moves for GBP on Brexit We've been revising down our Brexit GBP possibilities in the trading room the last week or so as Brexit looks very much priced in. We know there's a deal there but the same sticking points remain. If anything,...
USDCAD at a big level – Here’s two ways to trade it
First thing this morning I set out a trade plan for USDCAD in the ForexFlow trading room. Here's a video about it. Since then, I've played both sides, the long into 1.30, and then a reverse short on the break https://youtu.be/xRw81mEVxgk
The ForexFlow US election trading guide
Blue waves, red waves, hair waves, we've got you covered over the US election by doing what we do best, keeping things simple If you're feeling seasick from hearing about different coloured waves then fear not, we're nearly at the conclusion of the US election (or...
US Dollar – Calm before the storm?
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) - 4X Global Research The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely...
Here’s a Livetrading example of what we do here at ForexFlow:
Real trades, in real time I mentioned EURGBP in the last post and this is a pair that many of us have switched to to trade Brexit or GBP without the increased noise from the USD side due to the election. Some of us have been short from up around 0.91 and we've been...
Time to change lanes on trading GBP over Brexit
Taking the US election risk out of Brexit trading Our last few videos on trading GBP and Brexit have mainly concentrated on GBP vs USD. While that's had higher volatility, the risks now from the upcoming US elections make possible moves more even from both GBP &...
PBOC likely to keep Renminbi on tight leash
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research Only four currencies have appreciated by more than 4% versus US Dollar since end-July: the high-yielding South African Rand (4.6%) and Mexican Peso (5.8%), the Chinese Renminbi (4.4%) and...
The Brexit risk to GBP today is symmetrical
Be careful about trading GBP today The EU have pushed the onus back to the UK to move their position, and UK's Raab has indicated that it's the EU who need to do the same. Stalemate once again in the great Brexit game. What that has done is put Boris on the spot over...
A huge week is coming in FX markets – Are you ready for it?
We've an absolutely blockbuster week coming up There's been many, many features about 2020 so far that have made it one of the most bonkers years ever, not only in our lives but in trading. We're three quarters of the way through it and really nothing should surprise...
Did you all have fun in GBPUSD last week?
A bonkers week in Brexit even surpassed my expectations. GBP was battered anywhere a sell button could be pressed. In today's video we look at where the levels sit now, and where the pound might go next. https://youtu.be/4WSscldhtgE
GBPUSD is back on the Brexit wagon. Here’s the levels we’re watching
Brexit's back with a bang this week and GBP is taking notice. After failing to hit 1.35, could the pound drop back further? https://youtu.be/Kmgd_WRwUQI
UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – From 4X Global Research Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a...
Buying USD for a long-term trade
I'm setting up a long-term trade in USD I mentioned last week that I've been getting an itch for holding some USD (which I scratched somewhat by going long very small in USDJPY at 106.48). At the moment I favour USDJPY because of my view of both sides of the pair (USD...
A quick and simplified preview of Fed’s Powell at Jackson Hole
As usual, we like the K.I.S.S method at ForexFlow, so here's a quick brief on what to expect (or not expect) from Fed's Powell Will we be getting the chapter and verse on the framework review, or something similar to BOC's Wilkins, where Powell just details whats on...
EURUSD sucker punched from 1.19 but it’s not out of the game yet
EURUSD tried a run towards 1.20 but came up short. Here's a video on the levels to watch https://youtu.be/AGFB0u14WbQ
Warnings about US economy and USD overblown
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making headline news but some perspective is required. The US GDP contracted...
A big week of gains for EURUSD into the end of July but can it be maintained?
EURUSD knocked down the big figures like targets at a fairground shooting gallery last week, so what happens now? Last Monday we were looking (and continuing) to trade the breaks. Following further breaks intot he end of the month of July, we now need to see if the...
Retail sales key to UK economic growth recovery
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the...
3 trading clues to stop you getting burnt fighting trends
Do you often feel the need to fight big moves? This post should help you. We had a discussion in our trading room about fighting trends yesterday, and whether people can resist the urge to "sell it because it's gone up big and therefore must come down again". It's in...
This week has been a good week for break trading
When markets are stuck in tight ranges, we must always be planning for the breaks For many weeks we've seen pairs stuck in boring tight ranges, unclear direction and an unwillingness to push the boundaries but this week has been different. We've seen many breaks of...
Are you one of the 80% of retail traders who regularly lose money?
A big influx of inexperienced traders has entered the market and it looks like they're not doing well There's been a couple of stories out in the press highlighting tough times for retail traders. The Times writes that losses have jumped, noting that 80.5% of traders...
China’s V-shaped recovery under the microscope
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research Chinese GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted) was 11.5% qoq in Q2. This was stronger than consensus forecast (+9.6% qoq) and more than reversed Q1 contraction of 9.8% qoq. This record-high growth...
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