Fed: Same game, different rules

Fed: Same game, different rules

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research The Federal Reserve at its policy meeting on 16th June, whether inadvertently or by design, reset financial markets’ clocks. The dust has since settled somewhat, with US short-end and...
Fed: Same game, different rules

Dollar and the three bears

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research The US Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) traded in a narrow range of 1.8% between late-2020 and early March, according to our estimates. The Dollar then embarked on a 3-4 week...
Fed: Same game, different rules

US and UK: The Comeback Kids

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with...
Fed: Same game, different rules

Currency seasonality’s slow comeback?

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights...

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