The Autumn forecasts from a collective of German ecnomic institutes 28 September 2017

GDP

  • 2017 Real GDP 1.9% vs 1.5% prior
  • 2017 H1 GDP 2.5%
  • 2017 adjusted GDP 2.2% vs 1.8%. Highest since 2010
  • 2018 GDP  2.0% vs 1.8% prior
  • 2018 adjusted GDP 2.1%
  • 2019 GDP 1.9%

CPI

  • 2017 1.7% vs 1.8% prior
  • 2018 1.7% unch
  • 2019 1.8%

Comments

  • Germany’s very high growth dynamic in H1 to weaken slightly in H2
  • German economic output to show stronger gains in 2017, 2018 than production capacity growth
  • Seeing the first signs of tension in some sectors of the economy
  • ECB should, in the shoprt-term, announce tapering of QE from beginning of next year if economic conditions remain favourable
  • ECB should prepare exit from its ultra loose mon pol, especially from its unconventional measures
  • Next German government should focus on income tax reform

Did we expect anything less from those comments?

Ryan Littlestone

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Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”

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Ryan Littlestone

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