A warning for the UK MRP poll everyone is becoming fixated about
GBP traders are zeroing in on the YouGov/Times MRP poll coming tonight. Here's why caution is needed. So, the next big bone to chew for GBP traders is apparently an opinion poll. Why's this one so special? Well, apparently it "predicted" the 2017 election. Let's...
Depressed FX volatility allows for few surprises
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy - 4X Global Global FX volatility has fallen further in the past month to its lowest level since September 2014 according to our estimate (see Figure 1). Volatility in most major currencies has either fallen or only increased...
Trading the options action in EURUSD: Part 4 – Profit taken, rinse and repeat?
We've closed the door on our EURUSD strategy with good profit but are we good to go again? If you've been following this EURUSD trade mini-series, you'll know that we've been plotting and planning a trade around an options startegy in play in the wider market. This...
A mildly positive risk market on the open?
The weekend press headlines. Good Sunday evening, Monday morning fellow FX traders. -Give an take a bit of political banter, it seems the weekend got a little better as it progressed from China's political banter at the WTO yesterday into tighter IP protection rules...
Here’s how we at ForexFlow profited from trading the options action in EURUSD
Two weeks ago we heard about an option strategy being played out in EURUSD and so we decided to use that information to put together our own trading strategy Here's a mini series of videos detailing a trading strategy in EURUSD. The three videos over the last two...
Norway says there won’t be car tariffs coming from the US
Norwegian Minister confirms no car tariffs from the US Donald Trump was supposed to announce plans for tariffs on cars across the European continent last week but failed to do so. The market has been waiting to see if there would be any, or whether they would be...
Livetrading update – Setting up a trade for big option plays in EURUSD
There's some big options strategies playing out in EURUSD between now and the end of the year These option plays are mainly in a very tight range and are bracketed by binary and barrier options, which has also created a ton of long gamma that needs to be managed by...
A huge USD week. This time it’s different, isn’t it?
Preview on what's to come for the mighty dollar. It's some block of data and decisions we're getting second half of this week. We start with GDP, core PCE followed by the FOMC rate decision and presser today. Tomorrow we're having another round of PCE, personal income...
Here’s what you need to know about the UK election and what it means for Brexit and GBP
Your guide to the numbers game for the UK election and how that could affect Brexit and GBP An election has been called for 12th December and while we go through the speedy campaign motions, Brexit is on hold (barring any surprises from any party). This puts us into...
GBPUSD trading update – So near but yet so far
We came perhaps one step away from a Brexit deal being finalised but once again, Parliament managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. What's next for Brexit and GBP? https://youtu.be/r5YU-NsP_bQ
Here’s why traders should consider a market squawk service
It's now become impossible to live without a squawk service I could not live without my squawk service now. When I came back to full-time trading back in 2010 I needed to get access to as many news sources as possible but I had previously shied away from squawks...
Has Boris pulled a masterstroke on Labour’s Corbyn?
Just some speculative thoughts Boris calling for an election while giving MP's time to debate and pass the WAB does 2 things; If the election and WAB votes pass, Boris wins. He gets Brexit done and a huge election pitch. If he doesn't get the election, he still might...
Testy times for GBP and Brexit
A big few days for Brexit GBP has been relatively sedate the last few days but the vol is going to ramp up today. There's 110 pages of the WA bill that's being picked apart by both Leavers and remainers, and we're going to hear about it all day. Those headlines are...
The UK Parliament Brexit numbers game
What's happening in the UK MP voting game? As I wrote yesterday, trying to work out the MP vote numbers from historical voting is flawed as convention is out the window. Already, people that voted no on May's deal have switched (10 so far according to Buzzfeed), and...
Brexit update – What’s next?
Brexit update 17 October 2019 We're over one fence regarding the UK and EU negotiations so what comes next? Well, I say we're over the fence but as the DUP are still against the deal, we're sort of over the but with one leg still caught on the wire. We now switch...
Here’s where we’re at with Brexit
The latest on Brexit 16 October 2019 Lots of fuss being made about whether the DUP and ERG are onboard with Boris's plan but; Nowhere has it been confirmed that the DUP's mention of "gaps" means it's gaps between it and the government, and not gov & the EU. Boris...
Brexit goes Booom! – GBPUSD trading update
An update on GBPUSD trades after a big week for Brexit https://youtu.be/9rcGw8479IA
US consumer – From King to Prince
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) 8 October 2019 It is perhaps obvious that Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) or consumer demand is critical to US economic growth. PCE growth has accounted for over 80% of US real GDP growth since end-2013 (see...
Here’s why I’m going long GBP
With the clock ticking down towards the 31st Oct Brexit date, I've decided to start building a long position in GBPUSD. Here's why. https://youtu.be/AY2jLcfUVcY
Trading update – All go over the central banks
It's been busy busy in our trading room over the last few days Shorted EURUSD from 1.1104 to 1.1003 Longed USDJPY at 107.67 to 107.90 Longed EURGBP at 0.8854, took a bath at 0.8840 Shorted USDCAD at 1.3297 (took a 7pip loss on one trade due to the PA then entered...
Here’s why I’m starting to build longs in GBP
Brexit is fast approaching another crunch point and many roads point North for the pound Trading GBP has been like trying a bucking Bronco machine on full power. I've been loathed to do anything more than scalp the odd headline, or take a position on a clear path into...
Is USDJPY back in the long-term range, or sucking us all in ahead of the Fed?
As we head to the September 2019 FOMC, USDJPY is looking more solid. How should we trade it from here? https://youtu.be/N-addccX8co
It’s Fed’s meditation time
Short, sweet FOMC preview 18.09.2019. What do we expect from today's meeting: 25bps cut done. No immediate QE but leaving the door open. IOER cut: depending on where the Fed puts it between the Fed funds posts will be our barometer for their worries. the closer they...
“Currency wars” not central banks’ end-game – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 12 September 2019 Not a day passes without the media and US President Trump pointing the finger at “currency wars” and “competitive devaluations”. The thrust of the argument is that central banks across the world,...
Here’s how to trade the ECB
Forex trading preview of the September 2019 ECB meeting Here we are at one of the most anticipated ECB meetings for a long while. Rate cut expectations stand at 100%, with a 10bp cut at 66.8% and a 20bp cut at 33.2%. Restarting QE expectations range from 30-50bn a...
Brexit is back with a bang
We take a look at the latest trades in GBP as Brexit comes to the fore once more https://youtu.be/_iZLCcXjbaQ In you missed it, here's Part 1 from last week https://youtu.be/6kE22lw9RPo
Forex options expiries 22 August 2019
Forex options expiring at the 10am (14.00 GMT) New York cut 22 August 2019 It's hard to see EURUSD doing anything much while its surrounded by some decent expiries.
A trader’s view: MXN – Indices – Metals
A great analysis piece by ForexFlow platform member Jorge Celio MXN My main driver on MXN has and continue to be Remittances. The slow down makes me nervous. In terms of positioning will have a cautiously approach. I would be a seller of EURMXN on any EUR strength. ...
Big EURJPY expiry pops up out of nowhere – Forex options expiries 21 August 2019
Forex options expiring at the 10am (14.00 GMT) New York cut 21 August 2019 Big expiry in EURJPY today and the main feature of it is that it was all put on yesterday in various clips. It's not been noticed by many in the market but we've known of it since yesterday....
Forex options expiries 20 August 2019
Forex options expiring at the 10am (14.00 GMT) New York cut 20 August 2019 There's next to nothing in EURUSD below 1.10, and I mean nothing. Another sign that the options market is on holiday.
What is ForexFlow.live?
ForexFlow.live delivers relevant, breaking forex and other market news and analysis to traders of every experience. ForexFlow.live does it with style, effectiveness and more than a spoonful of fun. ForexFlow.live produces analysis, and deciphers the news and data in a way that cuts straight to the heart of trading, clearly, concisely and quickly. Most importantly, ForexFlow.live is run for traders, by traders. If you really want the fastest and best global trading views and opinions in the market, ForexFlow.live is all you need. Good luck with your trading.
