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The ForexFlow NFP competition is back for a US Independence day special!! I didn't realise it but it's been exactly a year since the last NFP compo, so it's about time we brought it back. To make up for lost time, there's going to be an opportunity for two lucky...

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Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate,...

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USD out of favour or a virus reversal?

Lots of discussion in our trading room today on what's driving the USD weakness Some analysts have tied it to the riots in the US but if that were so, and money was exiting the US, we'd be seeing an exit from US stocks and bonds too, irrespective of Fed action....

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US GDP growth – One extreme to another

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The BEA will release tomorrow its first estimate of US GDP growth in Q1. Consensus estimate for the quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of growth is -4.0%. If correct this...

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Are we at the end of the volatility?

As central banks and governments open the monetary hoses to cushion the economic effects of the Coronavirus, have we now seen the worst of the fear pass, and what trading opportunities are there now? https://youtu.be/pWOuozA4Ljo

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Global growth shaken, central banks stirred

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their...

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Virus, volatility and valuations

4X Global Research Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 27 February 2020 In reaction to the coronavirus epidemic governments across the world have enacted measures unprecedented in recent decades, including closing national borders, setting up...

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