A huge week is coming in FX markets – Are you ready for it?
We've an absolutely blockbuster week coming up There's been many, many features about 2020 so far that have made it one of the most bonkers years ever, not only in our lives but in trading. We're three quarters of the way through it and really nothing should surprise...
Did you all have fun in GBPUSD last week?
A bonkers week in Brexit even surpassed my expectations. GBP was battered anywhere a sell button could be pressed. In today's video we look at where the levels sit now, and where the pound might go next. https://youtu.be/4WSscldhtgE
GBPUSD is back on the Brexit wagon. Here’s the levels we’re watching
Brexit's back with a bang this week and GBP is taking notice. After failing to hit 1.35, could the pound drop back further? https://youtu.be/Kmgd_WRwUQI
UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – From 4X Global Research Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a...
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A quick and simplified preview of Fed’s Powell at Jackson Hole
As usual, we like the K.I.S.S method at ForexFlow, so here's a quick brief on what to expect (or not expect) from Fed's Powell Will we be getting the chapter and verse on the framework review, or something similar to BOC's Wilkins, where Powell just details whats on...
EURUSD sucker punched from 1.19 but it’s not out of the game yet
EURUSD tried a run towards 1.20 but came up short. Here's a video on the levels to watch https://youtu.be/AGFB0u14WbQ
Warnings about US economy and USD overblown
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making headline news but some perspective is required. The US GDP contracted...
A big week of gains for EURUSD into the end of July but can it be maintained?
EURUSD knocked down the big figures like targets at a fairground shooting gallery last week, so what happens now? Last Monday we were looking (and continuing) to trade the breaks. Following further breaks intot he end of the month of July, we now need to see if the...
Retail sales key to UK economic growth recovery
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the...
3 trading clues to stop you getting burnt fighting trends
Do you often feel the need to fight big moves? This post should help you. We had a discussion in our trading room about fighting trends yesterday, and whether people can resist the urge to "sell it because it's gone up big and therefore must come down again". It's in...
This week has been a good week for break trading
When markets are stuck in tight ranges, we must always be planning for the breaks For many weeks we've seen pairs stuck in boring tight ranges, unclear direction and an unwillingness to push the boundaries but this week has been different. We've seen many breaks of...
Are you one of the 80% of retail traders who regularly lose money?
A big influx of inexperienced traders has entered the market and it looks like they're not doing well There's been a couple of stories out in the press highlighting tough times for retail traders. The Times writes that losses have jumped, noting that 80.5% of traders...
China’s V-shaped recovery under the microscope
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research Chinese GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted) was 11.5% qoq in Q2. This was stronger than consensus forecast (+9.6% qoq) and more than reversed Q1 contraction of 9.8% qoq. This record-high growth...
How to trade the EU Summit
This weekend's EU Summit is going to be dangerous for trading because markets will be closed and any big news will likely see price gaps on the Sunday night open. Here's our brief of how best to trade it Two big ticket items up for discussion - EU rescue fund & EU...
USDJPY peeped out of its box but didn’t like what it saw
An updated view on USDJPY In last week's video we asked "What's it going to take to break USDJPY out of its box?". Well, it lifted the lid at 107 and swung one leg out but that didn't last. https://youtu.be/ZYrRE-Fo8m4
Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research Price action in major currencies was again subdued last week. With few tier-one macro data releases for markets to trade off the focus was on the reaction function of governments and central...
Kyle Bass and the HKD story
Hong Kong is a hot topic at the moment but it's not just geopolitical plays being made. Here we look into what's going on on the trading side We don't need to lay out in detail what's been happening on the policitcal side of Hong Kong right now but the market effect...
What’s it going to take to break USDJPY out of its box?
While USDJPY remains in tightly bound ranges, there's still plenty of opportunities to make money playing the range. In this video, we look at those ranges and where to set up for a potential break. https://youtu.be/UqLKFngBAD8
Here’s how the ForexFlow traders get ready to trade today’s US NFP
One of our jobs in the ForexFlow platform is to dissect big data points in readiness to trade them, so here's a snippet from the room for today's US jobs report We follow the K.I.S.S (Keep It Simple Stupid) strategy often at ForexFlow, and as well as providing plenty...
Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low...
GUESS WHAT’S BACK???
The ForexFlow NFP competition is back for a US Independence day special!! I didn't realise it but it's been exactly a year since the last NFP compo, so it's about time we brought it back. To make up for lost time, there's going to be an opportunity for two lucky...
Trading EURUSD – Break or bounce?
EURUSD has hit the bottom of the 1.1200-1.1500 range, with a key area just below that could determine whether we bounce or go lower. Here's the levels and trades we're watching https://youtu.be/foSl39pkPf8
United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Part One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic...
Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate,...
Time to take the money in USDMXN, and time to keep watch on GBP
Here's a video I did yesterday for the Investing Channel on my USDMXN position and what to watch for in GBP as we enter June https://youtu.be/oQ6qKbqiwcs
USD out of favour or a virus reversal?
Lots of discussion in our trading room today on what's driving the USD weakness Some analysts have tied it to the riots in the US but if that were so, and money was exiting the US, we'd be seeing an exit from US stocks and bonds too, irrespective of Fed action....
Chinese Renminbi – Canary in the coal mine
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports, the war of words between the two trading superpowers has clearly...
Are you cutting trades too early? If so, we have the answer
Cutting winning trades too early is an issue we hear about often, so here's how to deal with it There are many reasons why cutting a trade early is sensible, and many why it's not. If you don't like a trade, getting out is the sensible thing to do. There's never...
Lessons learnt from Q1 collapse in global GDP
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – From 4X Global Research Global GDP growth, in year-on-year terms, slowed to -2.7% in Q12020 from +3.1% in Q4 2019 and in quarter-on-quarter terms to -4.5% from +0.6% in Q4, based on growth rates in 14 major...
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