Getting slowly ready for another round
Sunday 19.08.2018 FX Opening rates Good evening dear Forexflow readers. I hope you had a relaxing weekend. Here we go again for an interesting week, where politics of all sorts will for sure have a say again in where FX will sail into before we all leave for Jackson...
read moreTrade wars? It’s all a joke. We have a plan.
Friday 17.08.2018 FX closing rates Look see, with all that went and goes on, take away some already fragile and stubborn EM currencies, sentiment is closing the week much more positive than where it started . A long term money manager, having dumped the TRY and ZAR...
read moreA big thank you for a superb week all round
Another great week ends Once again, the curtain comes down on a very eventful week. I finish the week chopping a slice off my USDMXN short at 18.85 as the US announce they drop sweeping demands on farming exports. Mexico and the US seem to be getting it done so a...
read moreCFTC Futures report: EURUSD longs throw in the towel
The Commitment of Traders net speculative positions report from the CFTC as of Tuesday 14 August 2018 JPY -58k vs -63k prior EUR -2k vs +10k prior GBP -61k vs -59k prior AUD -51k vs -55k prior NZD -27k vs -25k prior CAD -26k vs -25k prior CHF -46k vs -46k prior BTC...
read moreLira collapse post-mortem: Contagion lite
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research 17 August 2018 Since 5th August the Turkish Lira is down about 17% versus the Dollar and 15% in nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) terms and the concern remains that any...
read moreUS August prelim Michigan consumer sentiment index 95.3 vs 98 expected
US August 2018 preliminary Michigan indices on 17.08.201 prior 97.9 Current conditions 107.8vs 114.4 prior Consumer expectations 87.3 vs 87.3 prior 1 year inflation outlook 2.9% vs 2.9% prior 5 year inflation outlook 2.5% vs 2.40% prior -Consumer sentiment slipped to...
read moreCanada CPI July 2018 3.0% vs 2.5% exp y/y
July 2018 Canada CPI inflation data 17 August 2018 Prior 2.5% 0.5% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.1% CPI common 1.9% vs 1.9% exp. Prior 1.9% CPI median 2.0% vs 2.0% prior CPI trim 2.1% vs 2.0% prior BOC core 1.6% vs 1.3% prior 0.2% vs 0.1% prior m/m Big jump in inflation on...
read moreEurozone HICP final July 2018 2.1% vs 2.1% exp y/y
July 2018 Eurozone final HICP inflation data 17 August 2018 Prior 2.0% -0.3% vs -0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.1% Core 1.1% vs 1.1% exp y/y -0.5% vs -0.5% exp m/m. Prior 0.0% All on the money. Energy is starting to ramp up again. It rose 9.5% y/y vs 8.0% in June. That gives...
read moreUSDCAD pops up with some size – Forex option expiries 17 August 2018
Forex options expiring at the 10am (14.00 GMT) New York cut 17 August 2018 A bit of a decent spread in USDJPY in the 110's and some good size in USDCAD.
read moreGo with the Flow – Friday 17 August 2018
Here are today’s Trading views and Ideas for the day ahead. Let us know what you are looking at – Charts – Trade chatter – Trade positions. The Flow traders are available throughout the day to help out with your questions – Share trade set-ups and keep you updated...
read moreUS Philly Fed business outlook index August 2018 11.9 vs 22.0 exp
August 2018 US Philly Fed manufacturing data 16 August 2018 Prior 25.7 New orders 9.9 vs 31.4 prior Prices paid 55.0 vs 62.9 prior Employment 14.3 vs 16.8 prior 6m expectations 38.8 vs 29.0 prior Capex 27.1 vs 31.4 prior Big headline miss and a sharp drop in the...
read moreUS housing starts July 2018 1.168m vs 1.260m exp
July 2018 US housing starts and building permits data 16 August 2018 Prior 1.173m Building permits 1.311m vs 1.310m exp. Prior 1.292m A sharp drop in starts, although permist hold up well enough. Whether that's interest rate related due to a possible slowdown in...
read moreWhat’s interesting about today’s options then?
Here's what's sticking out on the options board today Today's options board has something that piqued my attention. It's the EURGBP and GBPUSD expiries at 0.8950 & 1.2700. Here's why; They're both all calls (give or take a handful of change) so need the price above...
read moreUK retail sales July 2018 0.7% vs 0.2% exp m/m
July 2018 UK retail sales data 16 August 2018 Prior -0.5% 3.5% vs 3.0% exp y/y. Prior 2.9% Ex-fuel 0.9% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior -0.6% 3.7% vs 2.8% exp y/y. Prior 3.0% Sales in food were strong due to the weather and world cup. ONS Notes: Food sales continued to benefit...
read moreAn interesting situation could evolve in the Forex options expiries 16 Auguist 2018
Forex option expiries for the 10am (14.00 GMT) New York cut 16 August 2018 Something interesting on the board today but I'm going to let you work it out and tell me what it is. It could mean some definitive action at expiry (if all conditions are met). Let's see if...
read moreGo With The Flow – Thursday 16 August 2018
Here are today’s trading views and ideas for the day ahead 16 August 2018 Good morning all. Breakthrough or just a tentative step in the trade war saga? The US and China are going to have tea together to talk trade, although these talks are said to be low level....
read moreJapan July Trade balance -231B JPY vs -50B JPY expected
Japan July 2018 Trade data on 16.08.2018 prior 720B JPY Adjusted Trade balance -45.6B JPY vs prior 66.2B JPY Exports YoY 3.9% vs 6.3% exp, prior 6.7% Imports 14.6% vs 14.4% exp, prior 2.6% Quite a miss on the exports, first impact of the tariffs on steel and...
read moreUS EIA weekly oil inventories 6.805m vs -2.500m exp
US EIA weekly oil inventory data w/e 10 August 2018 Prior -1.351m OPD 3.660m Cushing 1.643m v s-0.590m prior. OPD 1.640m Gasoline -0.740m vs -0.250m exp. Prior 2.900. OPD -1.560m Distillates 3.566m vs 1.000m exp. Prior 1.230m. OPD 1.940m Production 10.90m vs 10.80m...
read moreUS business inventories June 2018 0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m
June 2018 US business inventory data 15 August 2018 Prior 0.4% Sales 0.3% vs 1.4% prior. Revised to 1.3% Inventory/sales ratio 1.33 months vs 1.34 month prior The ratio is ticking down a touch as sales continue to show positive...
read moreUS industrial production July 2018 0.1% vs 0.3% exp m/m
July 2018 US industrial production data 15 August 2018 Prior 0.6%. Revised to 1.0% Capacity utilisation 78.1% vs 78.2% exp. Prior 78.0%. Revised to 78.1% Manufacturing output 0.3% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.8% A miss but higher revisions on last month. It seems there's...
read moreUS retail sales July 2018 0.5% vs 0.1% exp
July 2018 US retail sales data 15 August 2018 Prior 0.5%. Revised to 0.2% Ex-autos 0.6% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%. Revised to 0.2% Ex-autos/gas 0.6% vs 0.3% prior m/m. Revised to 0.2% Control group 0.5% vs 0.4% exp m/m. Prior 0.0%. Revised to -0.1% On the whole,...
read moreUS retail sales offer a different insight into the Fed trade now
A look at the changing dynamics of US data In a short while we get the latest US retail sale data July and I just want to highlight how the focus on data can change. When the Fed was tightening, the strength of a the consumer was a big factor. A strong consumer leads...
read moreYou, me and the PBOC – USDCNH trade idea
With USDCNH into 6.90, I'm starting to get ready to look at shorts A pretty simple trade idea this one. China is set to defend 7.00 and we already know of large barriers there. The biggest central bank in the world is in play and if there's one thing I've learnt over...
read moreUK CPI July 2018 2.5% vs 2.5% exp y/y
July 2018 UK CPI inflation and PPI data 15 August 2018 Prior 2.4% 0.0% vs 0.0% exp m/m. Prior 0.0% Core 1.9% vs 1.9% exp y/y. Prior 1.9% -0.1% vs 0.0% exp m/m. Prior -0.1% RPI 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.3% 3.2% vs 3.4% exp y/y. Prior 3.4% Ex-mortgage interest...
read moreUSDCNH pops up with some big ones – Forex option expiries 15 August 2018
Forex option expiries for the 10am (15.00 GMT) New York cut 15 August 2018 Once again things are a bit sparse in EURUSD. That's two days on the trot and highly unusual. This is probably more of a feature of the summer lull following all the central bank meetings....
read moreGo With The Flow – Hump day 15 August 2018
Here are today’s trading views and ideas for the day ahead 15 August 2018 Good morning and welcome to today's trading post. UK CPI data is the main data event in Europe before we switch to the US and a look at the consumer via retail sales and the first manufacturing...
read moreMarket moves and other musings
That old chestnut of a saying comes to mind 'Be careful what you wish for'. Early last week many of us were bemoaning the lack of market volatility. Since then there has been a scramble to pick a side . I would love to report that I am short EURUSD, GBPUSD or long...
read moreWhat’s next for EURUSD?
A look at what's pushing and pulling the euro right now Today I spoke to Nick Batsford at Core TV about EURUSD and the current themes that are moving it. https://youtu.be/6GuePHTrbas
read moreEurozone Q2 2018 GDP flash 0.4% vs 0.3% exp q/q
Q2 2018 Eurozone GDP flash and June 2018 Industrial production data 14 August 2018 Q1 2018 0.4% 2.2% vs 2.1% exp y/y. Prior 2.1% Industrial production June 2018 -0.7% vs -0.4% exp m/m. Prior 1.3% 2.5% vs 2.6% exp y/y. Prior 2.4% Nice print for GDP. Nothing boomy but...
read moreUK labour market report – Claimant count July 2018 6.2k vs 3.8k exp
July 2018 UK labour market data 14 Auguts 2018 Prior 7.8k June ILO unemployment rate 4.0% vs 4.2% exp. Prior 4.2% Average weekly earnings 2.4% vs 2.5% exp 3m y/y. Prior 2.5% Ex-bonus 2.7% vs 2.7% exp 3m y/y. Prior 2.7% Employment change 42k vs 98k exp. Prior 137k...
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