EUR pairs finding some firm footing as Europe gets its Coronavirus vaccine act together
Strong bottoms look to be in place in EURUSD and EURGBP, so what's next for these pairs? https://youtu.be/kaW7gWcSbxE
The questions facing EUR
With the EU fighting a massive vaccine PR battle, what is that doing to the euro? https://youtu.be/4lj9rwsnc9c
Fed preview – Shock and awe, or Spock and snore?
The market is going dotty over the Fed The only question today (again) is whether Powell is going to stick to the script or jawbone on rates. Given his recent comments, the logical conclusion (that's the Spock reference BTW) should be that he sticks to his old lines...
Taking stock
We're seeing signs of consolidation in some pairs so here's a look at the developing ranges Yesterday I did a video for the folks over at the Investing Channel about what's currently developing in several FX pairs. https://youtu.be/gnbmmmB0S1s
Souring UK & EU relations may lead to a souring GBP
The warning signs are growing for GBP I'm getting a growing concern over the state of relations between the UK and EU. We've seen big issues building over the Brexit & Irish protocols and the coronavirus vaccines, and they're getting worse. Here an example (Click...
USDJPY – The unstoppable machine!
USDJPY just keeps going and going. It's ripping through the tech levels but we shouldn't get complacent https://youtu.be/0pj74-G4fqk
US and UK: The Comeback Kids
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) - 4X Global Research The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our...
Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) - 4X Global Research The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will on 3rd March, at around 12.30 UK time, present to the House of Commons the annual budget for the United Kingdom. The ruling Conservative...
Trading in the zone(s)
Following up on recent videos on USDJPY and GBPUSD, we've hit some of the zones previously identified. What's coming next? https://youtu.be/Tg5OpOH30ZY
The simple market explainer
Are you struggling to understand the market moves and the explanations for them? If you are, ForexFlow will give you all the explanation you need Not every trader is an economics or finance expert (not many "experts" in this game are actually experts at all but that's...
The cracks have appeared in USDJPY, and GBPUSD looks to take another leg higher
USDJPY has hit zone 1 on our hit list so what happens now? GBPUSD has knocked out the big 1.40 and needs to show if there's more in the tank https://youtu.be/l5OMh4iGV5I
The hurdles remain significant for USDJPY
USDJPY finally broke the short-term trend but there's a long road ahead yet before it challenges the longer-term trend In this video we show what levels stand in the way, and what may happen if they fail. https://youtu.be/xYxW0jYWtCU
Currency seasonality’s slow comeback?
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights...
GBP continues to thwart the bulls
GBP longs are still waiting for the next leg up but it's not coming easily GBPUSD has defined a new high resistance level, while EURGBP has developed another short-term range. https://youtu.be/52fBpOAmaLo
RIP WallStreetBets:
Is it all over before it really started? FWIW I think this whole saga has been brilliant but they're now becoming victims of their own success. WSB has become pedestalled by a clueless press and infiltrated and bastardised beyond recognition by the very people they...
Caught in a GBP trap
GBP looked like it was making a break last week but that quickly reversed. GBPUSD and EURGBP were two pairs we were trading. In this video we explain what happened and what is likely to come next https://youtu.be/OOPnFE4IAEc
Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Media and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued to proliferate in the past month. The consensus view is still...
The tech plays its part as USDJPY fails the test
Last week we looked at the possibility of USDJPY making a break. Here's what happened and what happens next https://youtu.be/Ko0ttTFeOFI
Some thoughts after Fed’s Powell and incoming President Biden
A slightly longer review of Powell and Biden to last night Sometimes sleeping on something can bring a bit of clarity the next day, and doing just that has helped with analysing the Powell and Biden stuff. Powell Nothing unexpected from him in the end. Fed will do...
Biden’s trump cards and challenges
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research Barring another dramatic twist in an already torturous two months of political upheaval, Joe Biden will find a very full in-tray when he settles into the famed Oval Office in eight days time....
Is the tide turning for USD
The theme coming out of the first week of the New Year was about rising inflation expectations and a reversal in USD https://youtu.be/zsfTitK5qK8
Trading themes to watch in the first few days of the New Year
Happy New Year traders As we enter the first trading days of the New Year, we need to see if price moves continue from the 2020 close, or if new moves unfold. Here's a look at a few key pairs and what might happen. https://youtu.be/TAM6HoAX1sY
Brexit – Are we really at the end of it, and what’s going on with GBP?
It seems we might be but GBP has perhaps not reacted as much as we might expect There could be a few reasons for that. We still need an official confirmation. We've been here before many times for it to all fall apart at the last moment. We also need to hear from the...
Important holiday trading information
The Christmas holidays are upon us again, so be prepared for what's to come over the next two weeks Today is likely to be the last proper trading day of the year. We've been speaking to people in the industry (banks/fin firms etc) and it seems nearly all the financial...
Far more to Renminbi than USD/CNY cross
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The prevailing market view, as depicted in a recent Reuters article, is seemingly that Chinese policy makers are happy to allow further Renminbi appreciation versus the Dollar driven by a...
Time is priceless but has a steep cost
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research While some countries, including Sweden and United states, have eschewed national lockdowns over the past nine months or so the vast majority have adopted unprecedented measures to deal with a once...
Rotation, ROTATION!
Gold and BTC divergence. It's a hot topic these days. Since the major institutionals found their way to BTC, gold has definitely lost some of its shine. Positioning, less safe haven needs, the next US stimulus round having to wait a bit to see th elight of day ,...
What’s the point of ‘Livetrading’?
There's a reason I wanted to put this trade up in public today and that wasn't to try and look Billy big bollocks The GBPUSD trade today could have just as easily gone bad. What I wanted to show was the process and trade management that we teach and encourage to a lot...
Where can GBP go on a Brexit deal (or no-deal)?
We're assessing the possible price moves for GBP on Brexit We've been revising down our Brexit GBP possibilities in the trading room the last week or so as Brexit looks very much priced in. We know there's a deal there but the same sticking points remain. If anything,...
USDCAD at a big level – Here’s two ways to trade it
First thing this morning I set out a trade plan for USDCAD in the ForexFlow trading room. Here's a video about it. Since then, I've played both sides, the long into 1.30, and then a reverse short on the break https://youtu.be/xRw81mEVxgk
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