Here’s how the ForexFlow traders get ready to trade today’s US NFP
One of our jobs in the ForexFlow platform is to dissect big data points in readiness to trade them, so here's a snippet from the room for today's US jobs report We follow the K.I.S.S (Keep It Simple Stupid) strategy often at ForexFlow, and as well as providing plenty...
Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low...
GUESS WHAT’S BACK???
The ForexFlow NFP competition is back for a US Independence day special!! I didn't realise it but it's been exactly a year since the last NFP compo, so it's about time we brought it back. To make up for lost time, there's going to be an opportunity for two lucky...
Trading EURUSD – Break or bounce?
EURUSD has hit the bottom of the 1.1200-1.1500 range, with a key area just below that could determine whether we bounce or go lower. Here's the levels and trades we're watching https://youtu.be/foSl39pkPf8
United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Part One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic...
Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate,...
Time to take the money in USDMXN, and time to keep watch on GBP
Here's a video I did yesterday for the Investing Channel on my USDMXN position and what to watch for in GBP as we enter June https://youtu.be/oQ6qKbqiwcs
USD out of favour or a virus reversal?
Lots of discussion in our trading room today on what's driving the USD weakness Some analysts have tied it to the riots in the US but if that were so, and money was exiting the US, we'd be seeing an exit from US stocks and bonds too, irrespective of Fed action....
Chinese Renminbi – Canary in the coal mine
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports, the war of words between the two trading superpowers has clearly...
Are you cutting trades too early? If so, we have the answer
Cutting winning trades too early is an issue we hear about often, so here's how to deal with it There are many reasons why cutting a trade early is sensible, and many why it's not. If you don't like a trade, getting out is the sensible thing to do. There's never...
Lessons learnt from Q1 collapse in global GDP
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – From 4X Global Research Global GDP growth, in year-on-year terms, slowed to -2.7% in Q12020 from +3.1% in Q4 2019 and in quarter-on-quarter terms to -4.5% from +0.6% in Q4, based on growth rates in 14 major...
USDMXN could be a hot pair trade as countries crawl back from Coronavirus
This week starts with a 'risk' tug-of-war between countries re-opening, and an increase in US/China tensions. In this video I talk about a trade myself and the folks in the ForexFlow trading room are in https://youtu.be/-XY3QXB-XVk
Will things calm down after the end of month volatility? Don’t bet on it.
After some wild end of month moves, the market has gone back to trading the virus...the renewed US/China spat.... oil....and everything else. Here's what pairs and moves we're looking for this week at ForexFlow https://youtu.be/l7S-Mpz1Ca4
Here’s why conventional thinking is wrong when applied to trading the Coronavirus
Over the last few weeks something has been bugging me about the way people are analysing markets over Covid19. In this video, I explain why https://youtu.be/9QTMtvYaEP4
US GDP growth – One extreme to another
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The BEA will release tomorrow its first estimate of US GDP growth in Q1. Consensus estimate for the quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of growth is -4.0%. If correct this...
EURGBP continues to frustrate, while AUD could be an early contender for a virus recovery trade
Here's an update on the EURGBP trade I've been riding why long AUD could be a good trade going forward You can read further detailed analysis on the EURGBP trade here. https://youtu.be/cacx5Sn7HpQ
Growth interrupted: World was in recession in Q1 2020
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global research Forecasts of the scale of a likely global economic recession and the shape of the recovery often give little thought to the economic variables being measured or their timeliness. Based on 4X...
What’s next for EURGBP as it remains indecisive between 0.87 and 0.88?
EURGBP back in the zone after a walk on the wild side I've been short EURGBP since the run up to the 0.94's but we're hit a roadblock around 0.87. 0.88 was an area I looked at to take some partial profit on my shorts, and duly did in the first test back there in late...
National economic recessions – The price to pay
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research The consensus forecast is that GDP contracted in many major economies in Q1 and will most definitely contract in Q2 as a result of the negative impact of national lockdowns on supply and demand....
Virus related trading volatility is becoming more localised
As the virus volatility drops further, we're seeing trading attention focusing on individual countries, and their currencies. Here's what we're looking for this week https://youtu.be/dFMRArGUIXs
How much real FX liquidity is currently missing from the market?
FX volatility is still with us as liquidity drops due to the virus but what's driving the lower rate of business? This is something we've been talking about in our trading room today. When we talk about FX markets, most of our focus is on large banks and institutions...
Are we at the end of the volatility?
As central banks and governments open the monetary hoses to cushion the economic effects of the Coronavirus, have we now seen the worst of the fear pass, and what trading opportunities are there now? https://youtu.be/pWOuozA4Ljo
Governments and policies adapting to critical known unknown
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy from 4X Global We argued in Lack of US market & macro volatility both reassuring and troubling (17 January) that “the market’s willingness to look through domestic political and geopolitical events suggests that only a...
How might Central banks enact FX intervention?
With rising talk about direct Forex intervention, what might central banks do? We like to be ahead of the game at ForexFlow, hence the warning about an increase in intervention talk 30 mins before two CB's started talking about intervention ? But, how might that...
Trading through the Coronavirus turmoil
With extreme volatility, central bank and government action, we explain how best to trade through the volatility https://youtu.be/4T7S8PWr3xE
Global growth shaken, central banks stirred
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their...
Virus, volatility and valuations
4X Global Research Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 27 February 2020 In reaction to the coronavirus epidemic governments across the world have enacted measures unprecedented in recent decades, including closing national borders, setting up...
What we’ve got here is an abject lesson in fear trading
These markets aren't trading rationally. If you don't adapt, you'll pay the price Let's start by looking at some numbers. Globally, 1 in 3 people get flu each year, in most cases, it's mild and people don't even know they've got...
Banxico preview – What to look for in tonight’s decision
Banco De Mexico is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 7.0%. Here's a preview from our South & Central American expert Jorge The majority of analysts believe the estimates for inflation will allow BANXICO to continue with decreases in the reference interest rate, in...
Trading idea for a large AUDUSD expiry looks out of reach for now
We at ForexFlow were on watch for a possible trade on a large option expiry A 2.12bn expiry at 0.6700 in AUDUSD caught our trading interest today, mainly because of its unusual make up. It's only been put on since late Jan and has the signs that it's possibly just one...
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