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A mildly positive risk market on the open?

The weekend press headlines. Good Sunday evening, Monday morning fellow FX traders. -Give an take a bit of political banter, it seems the weekend got a little better as it progressed from China's political banter at the WTO yesterday into tighter IP protection rules...

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Testy times for GBP and Brexit

A big few days for Brexit GBP has been relatively sedate the last few days but the vol is going to ramp up today. There's 110 pages of the WA bill that's being picked apart by both Leavers and remainers, and we're going to hear about it all day. Those headlines are...

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The UK Parliament Brexit numbers game

What's happening in the UK MP voting game? As I wrote yesterday, trying to work out the MP vote numbers from historical voting is flawed as convention is out the window. Already, people that voted no on May's deal have switched (10 so far according to Buzzfeed), and...

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Brexit update – What’s next?

Brexit update 17 October 2019 We're over one fence regarding the UK and EU negotiations so what comes next? Well, I say we're over the fence but as the DUP are still against the deal, we're sort of over the but with one leg still caught on the wire. We now switch...

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Here’s where we’re at with Brexit

The latest on Brexit 16 October 2019 Lots of fuss being made about whether the DUP and ERG are onboard with Boris's plan but; Nowhere has it been confirmed that the DUP's mention of "gaps" means it's gaps between it and the government, and not gov & the EU. Boris...

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US consumer – From King to Prince

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) 8 October 2019 It is perhaps obvious that Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) or consumer demand is critical to US economic growth. PCE growth has accounted for over 80% of US real GDP growth since end-2013 (see...

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Here’s why I’m starting to build longs in GBP

Brexit is fast approaching another crunch point and many roads point North for the pound Trading GBP has been like trying a bucking Bronco machine on full power. I've been loathed to do anything more than scalp the odd headline, or take a position on a clear path into...

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It’s Fed’s meditation time

Short, sweet FOMC preview 18.09.2019. What do we expect from today's meeting: 25bps cut done. No immediate QE but leaving the door open. IOER cut: depending on where the Fed puts it between the Fed funds posts will be our barometer for their worries. the closer they...

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Here’s how to trade the ECB

Forex trading preview of the September 2019 ECB meeting Here we are at one of the most anticipated ECB meetings for a long while. Rate cut expectations stand at 100%, with a 10bp cut at 66.8% and a 20bp cut at 33.2%. Restarting QE expectations range from 30-50bn a...

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Brexit is back with a bang

We take a look at the latest trades in GBP as Brexit comes to the fore once more https://youtu.be/_iZLCcXjbaQ In you missed it, here's Part 1 from last week https://youtu.be/6kE22lw9RPo

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A trader’s view: MXN – Indices – Metals

A great analysis piece by ForexFlow platform member Jorge Celio MXN My main driver on MXN has and continue to be Remittances. The slow down makes me nervous. In terms of positioning will have a cautiously approach. I would be a seller of EURMXN on any EUR strength. ...

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