Flow Blog

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The grand central bank rate hike experiment

Markets are getting all bullish over rate hikes As I write this, the market is pricing in a 15bp hike at the Nov BOE MPC meeting, and see rates at 1.00% by Aug 2022. The ECB is pricing a 10bp hike by Sep 2022, up from Dec and as for the Fed, we're looking at Q2/3 for...

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The USDJPY rocket hits the zone

USDJPY into the 114/115 area now and it shouldn't be underestimated how big an area it is IT'S MASSIVE!! Obviously there's levels within it, starting around the current highs and through to 45/50, then 60/70. Then you can look at prior high points etc etc. A break...

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A super special NFP competition

Celebrating the joining of two forces It's been a while but as it's a special occasion it's time to resurrect the famous US non-farm payrolls competition. As you know, ForexFlow and Forex Analytix have merged our two services to offer a complete suite of trading...

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Fed: Same game, different rules

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) - 4X Global Research The Federal Reserve at its policy meeting on 16th June, whether inadvertently or by design, reset financial markets’ clocks. The dust has since settled somewhat, with US short-end and long-end...

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The Art of Knife Catching

Here's how not to lose your fingers after this week's FOMC moves Like most people, if I'm not on big moves like this, I'm getting the itch to catch the knife. However, far too many people just think that because something's gone down a lot, it's going to up again...

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The bond moves explained and what it means for FX

The simple answer is often the best answer We've been scratching our heads a bit in our trading room over the bond moves (and others) in recent days. Is it falling Central bank expectations, or fearing a top in inflation, problems over the next US stimulus package etc...

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A big song and dance over US inflation

Trading preview of the US CPI data today Both CPI and Core CPI are expected to jump again. CPI is expected at 4.7% vs 4.2% pr y/y. Core 3.4% exp vs 3.0% pr y/y. Here's what a lot of the eyeballs are on. Obviously energy inflation is a big part of any inflation data...

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Dollar and the three bears

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) - 4X Global Research The US Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) traded in a narrow range of 1.8% between late-2020 and early March, according to our estimates. The Dollar then embarked on a 3-4 week rally,...

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Fed preview – Shock and awe, or Spock and snore?

The market is going dotty over the Fed The only question today (again) is whether Powell is going to stick to the script or jawbone on rates. Given his recent comments, the logical conclusion (that's the Spock reference BTW) should be that he sticks to his old lines...

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Taking stock

We're seeing signs of consolidation in some pairs so here's a look at the developing ranges Yesterday I did a video for the folks over at the Investing Channel about what's currently developing in several FX pairs. https://youtu.be/gnbmmmB0S1s

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US and UK: The Comeback Kids

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) - 4X Global Research The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our...

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The simple market explainer

Are you struggling to understand the market moves and the explanations for them? If you are, ForexFlow will give you all the explanation you need Not every trader is an economics or finance expert (not many "experts" in this game are actually experts at all but that's...

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Currency seasonality’s slow comeback?

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights...

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