Research

The big market players are analysing the markets like the rest of us. This is where you can read what they have to say.

Danske Bank’s Top Trades of 2019

Danske Bank’s Top Trades of 2019

Next year's forecasts and trades are rolling off Danske is out with their top trades for 2019 1.Short EUR/NOK A fundamentally compelling case is building for shorting EUR/NOK Growth, carry, valuation, seasonality and positioning suggest a lower cross Given year-end...

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The beatings will continue until morale improves

The beatings will continue until morale improves

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research ·         The Dollar remains range bound, with the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate stuck in a 1.5% wide-range since early August, in line with our view. ·         Market pricing of Fed hikes in...

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Morgan Stanley cut JPY forecasts

Morgan Stanley cut JPY forecasts

The latest weekly report from Morgan Stanley sees a short-tern change in  their view of JPY USDJPY Q3 2018 113 vs 104 prior Q4 2018 108 vs 101 prior Q1 2019 104 vs 98 prior Q2 100 vs 96 prior Q3 95 unch Q4 93 unch EURJPY Q3 2018 128 vs 118 prior Q4 124 vs 116 prior Q1...

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A final twist in the Brexit plot?

A final twist in the Brexit plot?

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research In principle, the United Kingdom (UK) will officially cease to be a member of the European Union (EU) on 29th March 2019, regardless of whether: 1. The UK and EU reach agreement on the terms...

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Lira collapse post-mortem: Contagion lite

Lira collapse post-mortem: Contagion lite

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research 17 August 2018 Since 5th August the Turkish Lira is down about 17% versus the Dollar and 15% in nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) terms and the concern remains that...

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One extreme to another: A price worth paying?

One extreme to another: A price worth paying?

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research Developed and emerging market central banks have started to “normalise” monetary policy, albeit at a slow pace. However, they have been largely powerless to deal with the...

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Every which way but tight

Every which way but tight

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research The go-to buzzword of “Policy normalisation” in developed economies refers to the reversal of monetary loosening policies introduced during the 2008 great financial crisis...

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