Research
The big market players are analysing the markets like the rest of us. This is where you can read what they have to say.
Every which way but tight
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research The go-to buzzword of “Policy normalisation” in developed economies refers to the reversal of monetary loosening policies introduced during the 2008 great financial crisis to...
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EUR weakness should continue says Morgan Stanley
In the latest MS FX update they say the trend is your friend The latest Morgan Stanley FX Pulse is out and for those of you who don't know, it's probably one of the best Forex reports out there. This week they say that the Euro should continue to slide. EUR selling to...
read more FX markets are beyond “risk-on” and “risk-off”
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research FX volatility remains subdued but this is not classical “risk-on” or “risk-off”. However, a number of patterns, beyond the Dollar’s obvious recovery, have recently stood out....
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ING – Will Trump target FX in the next battle on trade?
Some food for thought on the next possible direction for Trump's trade shake up ING talk about trade in one of their latest notes; Will the White House take their trade war into the currency arena? One of the bigger risks specific to FX markets in the near-term is...
read more What’s driving EM and commodity currencies?
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research 13 April 2018 Currency volatility remains subdued and European currencies, the Chinese Renminbi and even the Brazilian Real and South African Rand, have done little...
read more Trading Places – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research The rapid escalation in a potential trade war between the United States and China over the past month continues to dominate the headlines despite proposed protectionist...
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Watch for USDJPY volatility during Abe’s visit to US 17-19 April
US-South Korea trade deal could preview Abe's next month visit to US Here an interesting article by the Nikkei how the negotiations around the steel and aluminium tariffs have been coupled to a side deal on competitive currency manipulation . The deal itself is of...
read more The FX Markets’ Nerves of Steel – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research – 22 March 2018 Rising geopolitical tensions and stress in the US tech sector have strained equity markets. Conversely, FX volatility has eased below its long-term average and...
read more ING are bullish on GBP
ING's outlook for GBP: Medium-term bulls With BoE policy tightening and a resilient UK economy acting as a 'put' on the pound amid short-term Brexit risks, we continue to think there is more GBP upside over the coming months. We target GBP/USD at 1.45 in 2Q18....
read more Financial markets’ reaction function to event flow is in line with recent patterns – 4X Global Research
Markets have had to digest a great deal of headline-grabbing news -Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research – 08 March 2018 Our Forecasts – Hits and Misses 4X Global Research prides itself on the transparency of its...
read more Beware of dormant FX volatility
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research 27 February 2018 Equity market volatility, both implied and realized, which peaked in early February has eased off in the past fortnight but is still high when compared with...
read more Bank of England to get ahead of the curve and hike in May – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research 14 February 2018 The Bank of England (BoE) has made clear in recent days that it may hike rates sooner and faster than it and markets had anticipated. Our core scenario at this...
read more Do you want to know where Morgan Stanley are looking to buy EURUSD?
In the excellent weekly Morgan Stanley FX Pulse report, they're looking to buy a dip in EURUSD Morgan Stanley like the look of EURUSD longs and they're waiting for a dip to buy into. They have an order in to buy at 1.2165 with a stop at 1.2050 and a target of 1.2800....
read more Snowflake could trigger an equity avalanche – 4X Global research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research The multi-year rally in US equities has set numerous records but so did the downturn on 2-5 February and the rise in until now dormant volatility. The underlying cause(s) and...
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TD Securities ECB preview: EURUSD upside to prevail if Draghi doesn’t take a big swipe at FX strength at the ECB meeting
Some comments from TD Securities ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting We look for the ECB to keep its 12:45pm press release unchanged, despite the speculation that it could start changing the language as soon as this week’s meeting, something that we only give a 10%...
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