Research
The big market players are analysing the markets like the rest of us. This is where you can read what they have to say.
Governments and policies adapting to critical known unknown
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy from 4X Global We argued in Lack of US market & macro volatility both reassuring and troubling (17 January) that “the market’s willingness to look through domestic political and geopolitical events suggests that only a...
Global growth shaken, central banks stirred
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their...
Virus, volatility and valuations
4X Global Research Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 27 February 2020 In reaction to the coronavirus epidemic governments across the world have enacted measures unprecedented in recent decades, including closing national borders, setting up...
Depressed FX volatility allows for few surprises
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy - 4X Global Global FX volatility has fallen further in the past month to its lowest level since September 2014 according to our estimate (see Figure 1). Volatility in most major currencies has either fallen or only increased...
US consumer – From King to Prince
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) 8 October 2019 It is perhaps obvious that Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) or consumer demand is critical to US economic growth. PCE growth has accounted for over 80% of US real GDP growth since end-2013 (see...
“Currency wars” not central banks’ end-game – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 12 September 2019 Not a day passes without the media and US President Trump pointing the finger at “currency wars” and “competitive devaluations”. The thrust of the argument is that central banks across the world,...
A trader’s view: MXN – Indices – Metals
A great analysis piece by ForexFlow platform member Jorge Celio MXN My main driver on MXN has and continue to be Remittances. The slow down makes me nervous. In terms of positioning will have a cautiously approach. I would be a seller of EURMXN on any EUR strength. ...
Draghi’s ECB legacy – Stable Euro, weak inflation
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 10 July 2019 European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will step down at the end of his eight-year term on 31 October. Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF – which has implicitly called for looser global...
Looking beyond perfect Sterling Storm
4X Global Research - Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 26 June 2019 It is now three years since the referendum on 23rd June 2016 in which 52% of the British electorate voted for the UK to exit the EU. The issue of whether, when and how the UK will...
Renminbi Depreciation True To Form – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) 7 June 2019 We noted in “Renminbi depreciation – Case of déjà vu” (16 May 2019) that the Renminbi’s performance since early March had been very similar to that of May-June 2018 and that if, as we expected, history was...
Renminbi depreciation –Case of déjà vu – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) The Renminbi Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER), which had appreciated 3.5% in the two months up to 5 March 2019 and then traded in a narrow 1% range in the following two months, has since 2 May depreciated 2.1%...
4X Global Research says Brexit and Sterling are going nowhere, fast
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 18 April 2019 Much has happened in the past two months and yet the UK finds itself in a similar situation as in mid-October 2018 when it had just over five months to get a deal through parliament before its...
Swiss Franc – An imperfect Safe Haven currency – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 15 March 2019 There is no formal definition of what constitutes a safe haven currency. However, it will normally exhibit a number of related characteristics, including i) high trading volume and liquid financial...
Brexit: Another 48 hours – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 08 March 2019 The House of Commons (HoC), the lower house of parliament, will on 12th March hold a legally-binding vote on whether to approve Prime Minister May’s draft Brexit deal – the Withdrawal Agreement and...
Politics and geopolitics driving currencies, central banks in stasis…for now – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 05 March 2019 In line with our forecasts, the 60bp of central bank rate hikes in 2018 is contributing to the ongoing slowdown in global GDP growth, which we estimate will fall below 3% yoy in Q1 2019 for the first...
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