Research

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Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty – 4X Global Research

Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate,...

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Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty – 4X Global Research

US GDP growth – One extreme to another

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The BEA will release tomorrow its first estimate of US GDP growth in Q1. Consensus estimate for the quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of growth is -4.0%. If correct this...

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Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty – 4X Global Research

Global growth shaken, central banks stirred

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their...

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Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty – 4X Global Research

Virus, volatility and valuations

4X Global Research Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 27 February 2020 In reaction to the coronavirus epidemic governments across the world have enacted measures unprecedented in recent decades, including closing national borders, setting up...

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Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty – 4X Global Research

US consumer – From King to Prince

Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) 8 October 2019 It is perhaps obvious that Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) or consumer demand is critical to US economic growth. PCE growth has accounted for over 80% of US real GDP growth since end-2013 (see...

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A trader’s view: MXN – Indices – Metals

A trader’s view: MXN – Indices – Metals

A great analysis piece by ForexFlow platform member Jorge Celio MXN My main driver on MXN has and continue to be Remittances. The slow down makes me nervous. In terms of positioning will have a cautiously approach. I would be a seller of EURMXN on any EUR strength. ...

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