Research
The big market players are analysing the markets like the rest of us. This is where you can read what they have to say.
Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low...
United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Part One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic...
Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate,...
Chinese Renminbi – Canary in the coal mine
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports, the war of words between the two trading superpowers has clearly...
Lessons learnt from Q1 collapse in global GDP
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – From 4X Global Research Global GDP growth, in year-on-year terms, slowed to -2.7% in Q12020 from +3.1% in Q4 2019 and in quarter-on-quarter terms to -4.5% from +0.6% in Q4, based on growth rates in 14 major...
US GDP growth – One extreme to another
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The BEA will release tomorrow its first estimate of US GDP growth in Q1. Consensus estimate for the quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of growth is -4.0%. If correct this...
Growth interrupted: World was in recession in Q1 2020
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global research Forecasts of the scale of a likely global economic recession and the shape of the recovery often give little thought to the economic variables being measured or their timeliness. Based on 4X...
National economic recessions – The price to pay
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research The consensus forecast is that GDP contracted in many major economies in Q1 and will most definitely contract in Q2 as a result of the negative impact of national lockdowns on supply and demand....
Governments and policies adapting to critical known unknown
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy from 4X Global We argued in Lack of US market & macro volatility both reassuring and troubling (17 January) that “the market’s willingness to look through domestic political and geopolitical events suggests that only a...
Global growth shaken, central banks stirred
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their...
Virus, volatility and valuations
4X Global Research Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 27 February 2020 In reaction to the coronavirus epidemic governments across the world have enacted measures unprecedented in recent decades, including closing national borders, setting up...
Depressed FX volatility allows for few surprises
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy - 4X Global Global FX volatility has fallen further in the past month to its lowest level since September 2014 according to our estimate (see Figure 1). Volatility in most major currencies has either fallen or only increased...
US consumer – From King to Prince
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) 8 October 2019 It is perhaps obvious that Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) or consumer demand is critical to US economic growth. PCE growth has accounted for over 80% of US real GDP growth since end-2013 (see...
“Currency wars” not central banks’ end-game – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 12 September 2019 Not a day passes without the media and US President Trump pointing the finger at “currency wars” and “competitive devaluations”. The thrust of the argument is that central banks across the world,...
A trader’s view: MXN – Indices – Metals
A great analysis piece by ForexFlow platform member Jorge Celio MXN My main driver on MXN has and continue to be Remittances. The slow down makes me nervous. In terms of positioning will have a cautiously approach. I would be a seller of EURMXN on any EUR strength. ...
What is ForexFlow.live?
ForexFlow.live delivers relevant, breaking forex and other market news and analysis to traders of every experience. ForexFlow.live does it with style, effectiveness and more than a spoonful of fun. ForexFlow.live produces analysis, and deciphers the news and data in a way that cuts straight to the heart of trading, clearly, concisely and quickly. Most importantly, ForexFlow.live is run for traders, by traders. If you really want the fastest and best global trading views and opinions in the market, ForexFlow.live is all you need. Good luck with your trading.
