Research
The big market players are analysing the markets like the rest of us. This is where you can read what they have to say.
UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – From 4X Global Research Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a...
Warnings about US economy and USD overblown
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making headline news but some perspective is required. The US GDP contracted...
Retail sales key to UK economic growth recovery
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the...
China’s V-shaped recovery under the microscope
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research Chinese GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted) was 11.5% qoq in Q2. This was stronger than consensus forecast (+9.6% qoq) and more than reversed Q1 contraction of 9.8% qoq. This record-high growth...
Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research Price action in major currencies was again subdued last week. With few tier-one macro data releases for markets to trade off the focus was on the reaction function of governments and central...
Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low...
United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Part One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic...
Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate,...
Chinese Renminbi – Canary in the coal mine
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports, the war of words between the two trading superpowers has clearly...
Lessons learnt from Q1 collapse in global GDP
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – From 4X Global Research Global GDP growth, in year-on-year terms, slowed to -2.7% in Q12020 from +3.1% in Q4 2019 and in quarter-on-quarter terms to -4.5% from +0.6% in Q4, based on growth rates in 14 major...
US GDP growth – One extreme to another
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The BEA will release tomorrow its first estimate of US GDP growth in Q1. Consensus estimate for the quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of growth is -4.0%. If correct this...
Growth interrupted: World was in recession in Q1 2020
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global research Forecasts of the scale of a likely global economic recession and the shape of the recovery often give little thought to the economic variables being measured or their timeliness. Based on 4X...
National economic recessions – The price to pay
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 4X Global Research The consensus forecast is that GDP contracted in many major economies in Q1 and will most definitely contract in Q2 as a result of the negative impact of national lockdowns on supply and demand....
Governments and policies adapting to critical known unknown
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy from 4X Global We argued in Lack of US market & macro volatility both reassuring and troubling (17 January) that “the market’s willingness to look through domestic political and geopolitical events suggests that only a...
Global growth shaken, central banks stirred
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their...
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