Research
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Chinese growth slowdown – Project Fear? 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) 31 January 2019 The ongoing trade war between the US and China undoubtedly contributed to the slowdown in Chinese GDP growth to a nine-year low of 6.4% yoy in Q4 and (re)ignited concerns that China is in trouble....
read more Nominal Effective Exchange Rates: Monthly seasonal patterns – 4x Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 10 January 2019 This report examines the monthly seasonal patterns of 32 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2011, using 76,600 daily data points. The NEER provides a more accurate...
read more What you may have missed and why it matters
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4x Global Research – 4 January 2019 Price action in markets deprived of tier-one macro data over the Christmas and New Year period has centred on acute volatility in US and global equities, with sizeable...
read more Tuesday 11th December: Brexit D-Day – 4X Global research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 5 December 2018 In the past three weeks, British and European Union (EU) negotiators have formally reached an agreement on a draft “Brexit deal”, in practise two separate albeit inter-linked documents: 1) The terms...
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Danske Bank’s Top Trades of 2019
Next year's forecasts and trades are rolling off Danske is out with their top trades for 2019 1.Short EUR/NOK A fundamentally compelling case is building for shorting EUR/NOK Growth, carry, valuation, seasonality and positioning suggest a lower cross Given year-end...
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Morgan Stanley smells an FX change coming in 2019
Morgan Stanley out with a note on what to expect in 2019 Morgan Stanley have looked into the crystal ball to see what themes will be driving FX prices next year. They've also updated their forecasts. EURUSD Q1 2019 1.17 vs 1.19 prior Q2 1.20 vs 1.24 prior Q3 1.26 vs...
read more Brexit Mayday: Living on a Prayer – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) – 14 November 2018 873 days after the referendum on 23rd June 2016, the British government announced yesterday that UK and EU negotiators had reached a draft agreement on the terms and conditions of i) the UK’s exit...
read more The beatings will continue until morale improves
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research · The Dollar remains range bound, with the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate stuck in a 1.5% wide-range since early August, in line with our view. · Market pricing of Fed hikes in...
read more Morgan Stanley cut JPY forecasts
The latest weekly report from Morgan Stanley sees a short-tern change in their view of JPY USDJPY Q3 2018 113 vs 104 prior Q4 2018 108 vs 101 prior Q1 2019 104 vs 98 prior Q2 100 vs 96 prior Q3 95 unch Q4 93 unch EURJPY Q3 2018 128 vs 118 prior Q4 124 vs 116 prior Q1...
read more A final twist in the Brexit plot?
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from 4X Global Research In principle, the United Kingdom (UK) will officially cease to be a member of the European Union (EU) on 29th March 2019, regardless of whether: 1. The UK and EU reach agreement on the terms...
read more Herd instinct giving way to phased FX approach – 4X Global Research
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) So far this year we have identified six broad phases for the US Dollar which have lasted from a couple of weeks to two-and-a-half months. This provides a useful starting point to analyse how the Dollar, Renminbi and...
read more Lira collapse post-mortem: Contagion lite
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research 17 August 2018 Since 5th August the Turkish Lira is down about 17% versus the Dollar and 15% in nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) terms and the concern remains that...
read more Brexit’s (probably) coming home and markets don’t care…for now
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS)from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research 13 July 2018 UK financial markets have been remarkably stable in the past month despite having to contend with a plethora of macro data, UK-driven events and global...
read more One extreme to another: A price worth paying?
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research Developed and emerging market central banks have started to “normalise” monetary policy, albeit at a slow pace. However, they have been largely powerless to deal with the...
read more Every which way but tight
Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) from Olivier Desbarres at 4X Global Research The go-to buzzword of “Policy normalisation” in developed economies refers to the reversal of monetary loosening policies introduced during the 2008 great financial crisis...
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