Following the poor August 2017 Eurozone retail sales numbers yesterday, the September PMI’s look a whole lot better
Yesterday we saw a dreadful showing from retail sales in Aug va the collective Eurozone number. Today, we’ve had the release of the Markit retail PMI’s and they show a decent bounce back (all bar Germany);
- Eurozone 52.3 vs 50.8 prior
- Germany 52.8 vs 53.0 prior
- France 53.3 vs 50.4 prior
- Italy 50.2 vs 48.0 prior
What’s worth noting is that if we look at the Jul PMI (Eurozone) at 51.0, it fell into Aug, which was a potential signal for the drop in the headline numbers yesterday. Looking back another month, the same thing happened. Here’s how the PMI’s shape up to the headline sales;
- June PMI rises to 53.2 vs 52.0 in May – Retail sales rise 0.6%
- July PMI drops to 51.0 – Retail sales drop 0.3%
- Aug PMI drops to 50.8 – Retail sales drop 0.5%
- Sep PMI rises to 52.3 – Retail sales TBA
There’s no correlation between the size of the move in the PMI’s and the percentages in the retails but it looks like the PMI’s are a good leader of the retails, so we should remember this next month when the headline numbers for Sep come out. The market sometimes has a very short memory for this sort of thing so there might be a trade there. However, this isn’t something to put your house on as there’s never any guarantees that the correlation holds true, nor that we even get a sufficient move on the data that’s worth trading anyway. It’s something to watch though.
Philosophy: “Don’t be a Dick for a tick”
Read how Ryan got into trading here
- The last NFP competition of 2022 - December 1, 2022
- Will this month’s US NFP be a horror show? - October 4, 2022
- US NFP competition – Do you think there’s going to be a turn in the US jobs market? - August 31, 2022