September 2017 UK retail sales 19 October 2017
- Prior 1.0%. Revised to 0.95
- 1.2% vs 2.1% exp y/y. Prior 2.4%. Revised to 2.3%
- Ex-fuel -0.7% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 1.0%. Revised to 0.9%
- 1.6% vs 2.4% exp y/y. Prior 2.8%. Revised to 2.6%
- Sales deflator 3.3% vs 3.1% prior y/y. Highest since Mar 2012.
- Q3 sales 0.6% vs 1.1% in Q2
- Underlying sales (3M/3M) saw growth of 0.6% down from 0.9% seen in August
- Underlying sales (3M/Yr-ago) at 1.5%, lowest since June 2013 (1.2%)
- Retail Sales will contribute 0.03% to Q3 GDP output
- Store prices (nsa) continue to rise across all store types and highest y/y since March 2012 (3.3%)
- Online sales values rose y/y 1.4% and accounts for approx. 17% of all retail spend
- Underlying trend shows steady growth in sales volumes against a backdrop of rising prices
Stinky numbers on the face of it but the deflator numbers is the standout as that is inflationary. If the market looks through the headline numbers and concentrates on the inflation side, this drop in the quid might not last. It’s difficult to say becuase the quid was under pressure in the first place. GBPUSD fell to 1.3132 and now sits at 1.3140. That’s below yesterday’s lows so if it now becomes resistance, we’ll be heading back down.